The upcoming 2025 NHL offseason features a limited pool of elite free agents, coinciding with a significant rise in the salary cap. This environment makes overspending on contracts particularly likely, potentially validating the old adage about mistakes made on July 1.
Mitch Marner stands out as the most prominent free agent candidate this year. There`s a notable gap between him and the next tier of players like Matt Duchene, Sam Bennett, John Tavares, Brock Boeser, and Aaron Ekblad. This contrasts sharply with July 1, 2026, which could see stars such as Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov, Jack Eichel, Artemi Panarin, Kyle Connor, and John Carlson become available. While many might extend with their current teams, the potential availability of such high-caliber players in a year should make general managers hesitant about committing to inflated contracts in the summer of 2025.
The scarcity of top-tier talent in 2025 increases the probability of teams overpaying. To achieve Stanley Cup contention, teams need players whose performance exceeds their contract value, avoiding any form of inefficient contracts. While teams in tax-free states might have an advantage, the real benefit comes from top players significantly overperforming their contract figures even beyond any tax savings.
For example, Sam Reinhart likely could have commanded an average annual value (AAV) of $10 million on the open market but chose to stay with the Florida Panthers for $8.625 million. According to performance models, Reinhart`s actual value is closer to $12.6 million, providing Florida with approximately $2.6 million in surplus value on top of any tax benefits. Similar positive value situations exist with players like Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov, Thomas Harley, and Shea Theodore.
In locations without state income tax benefits, elite players such as Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Seth Jarvis, and Nico Hischier also outperform their contracts. Perhaps the most striking examples are in Edmonton, where Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, and Zach Hyman are significantly exceeding their contract values. Even Draisaitl’s substantial upcoming contract is projected to be efficient. For Evan Bouchard, any contract with an AAV under $9.5 million would be considered highly efficient.
Reports suggest Mitch Marner is seeking around $14 million per year. However, an analysis of player value indicates an efficient contract for him would be closer to $12 million. Sam Bennett, another player reportedly represented by the same agent, is rumored to be seeking approximately $9 million AAV. This asking price is comparable to an elite second-line center, despite Bennett’s career high being 51 points, more reflective of a low-end second or high-end third-line player. While there are valid points about Marner`s regular-season contribution and Bennett`s playoff impact, a team aiming to win cannot afford to pay these players significantly above their calculated value.
Considering Toronto`s current salary cap structure, extending Marner on an inefficient contract is unlikely to lead to sustained success, as it would make balancing the roster difficult. If Marner desires to play for a contending team and win, contract efficiency is crucial. Applying a similar efficiency standard to the one expected from the upcoming Draisaitl contract, which Marner’s representatives are reportedly using as a comparison, anything over $12 million would impede a team’s ability to contend. This is especially true given Marner`s playoff performance has yet to reach Draisaitl’s level. For Marner`s contract to be truly valuable, similar to those of Reinhart, Kucherov, or Kaprizov, he would need to sign for roughly $10 million AAV.
It`s become increasingly apparent that Toronto requires a major roster overhaul. Although several potential trades fell through in recent years, the Maple Leafs now face the reality that a superstar-caliber player might depart without compensation. Nevertheless, Toronto cannot afford to extend Marner on an inefficient deal, particularly given his inconsistent playoff production. Here’s a potential alternative approach.
With the contracts of Marner and John Tavares expiring, the Leafs have substantial flexibility regarding cap space. While they cannot replace Marner`s individual value with a single player, they have the opportunity to reallocate resources throughout the lineup.
Tavares is likely to re-sign in Toronto, with rumors suggesting an AAV around $5 million. This would be an efficient contract for a middle-six center who scored 38 goals in the 2024-25 season. For restricted free agent Matthew Knies, the Leafs should opt for a long-term contract in the range of $8.5 million AAV, avoiding a bridge deal. The combined cost of Tavares ($5 million) and Knies ($8.5 million), totaling $13.5 million, is less than Marner`s reported asking price. Furthermore, the combined value of Tavares and Knies is likely to exceed Marner`s value for roster construction.
Toronto should also anticipate forward Easton Cowan contributing in a middle-six role on his entry-level contract next season. It appears almost essential that Toronto`s general manager, Brad Treliving, trades two players from the group including David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, Max Domi, and Nick Robertson. The resulting cap space could be utilized to sign free agents like Matt Duchene, Brad Marchand (if available), or Pius Suter, all of whom could provide significantly more value in elevated roles compared to their potential contract costs.
Such roster restructuring would enable Toronto to field three effective forward lines. The success of the Panthers` third line in their series victory against the Leafs highlighted the importance of depth, made possible by efficient contracts among Florida`s top players, which allowed for a more balanced lineup approach.
Speaking of the Panthers, there are rumors that the Leafs have interest in Sam Bennett. While the appeal is understandable, it’s important to recall Bennett`s performance before joining Florida. In his previous role as Flames GM, Treliving traded Bennett from Calgary for minimal assets because he struggled to find his game. Bennett appears to be a perfect fit in Florida`s system, though a significant portion of his perceived value stems from his physical and extracurricular activities rather than purely offensive output. If these activities were to be more heavily penalized, their value would diminish.
Consider the comparison: Tavares scored 38 goals and 74 points this season and is expected to re-sign for around $5 million. Bennett recorded a career-high 51 points this season. Although Bennett is younger, committing to a contract worth 1.5 times Tavares` salary until Bennett reaches Tavares` age – having produced 0.68 points per game in Florida and 0.48 points per game over his career – would be disastrous for cap management.
Florida is reportedly reluctant to pay Bennett more than $7 million per year, which would already be a slightly inflated figure. Given Florida`s recent success, the Maple Leafs would be wise to observe their approach. An AAV of $7.5 million for Bennett would be inefficient but potentially manageable, assuming his aggressive style doesn`t draw increased penalties in Toronto`s high-scrutiny market. However, should Bennett`s camp seek a higher figure, the Leafs should definitely look elsewhere. Targeting players like Pius Suter or Matt Duchene on July 1, or exploring a trade for someone like Mason Marchment from Dallas, represents a more balanced roster construction strategy.
Regardless of the specific players acquired through free agency or trade, the Maple Leafs desperately need to improve their forward depth and avoid signing inefficient contracts. They currently have too many burdensome deals and would benefit greatly from shedding some. The most successful teams don`t rely solely on one or two superstars; this is true even for the Oilers, although having McDavid and Draisaitl certainly helps.
Instead, consistently competitive teams thrive because their star players outperform their contracts, and management effectively acquires depth players on efficient deals, allowing the team to deploy quality players across multiple lines. Current examples include Florida`s effective third line and Edmonton`s valuable depth players like Corey Perry, Jake Walman, and Connor Brown. The efficient contracts of players like Roope Hintz, Thomas Harley, and Matt Duchene allowed Dallas the flexibility to acquire a superstar-level player like Mikko Rantanen.
Toronto must adopt a ruthless approach, similar to the Tampa Bay Lightning during their back-to-back Stanley Cup wins or the Vegas Golden Knights since their inception.
If a player is unwilling to sign for a contract value that aligns with the team`s needs for success, they simply cannot remain a Maple Leaf. Granting significant trade protection to players outside the top-six forwards or top-four defensemen must end. While eight- or ten-team no-trade clauses for third-line players might be manageable in rare cases, the practice of giving any level of trade protection to easily replaceable bottom-pair defenders or players like David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, and Ryan Reaves needs to stop immediately. The team cannot allow its ability to make necessary roster adjustments to be hampered by trade protection given to players who can be easily replaced each summer.
For the Maple Leafs to win consistently, they must maintain a sharp focus on contract efficiency. This likely means sacrificing some raw talent in the short term to build a more balanced, sustainable roster approach, mirroring the strategies that have brought success to other organizations.
