There`s a strong desire to witness Connor McDavid finally lifting the Stanley Cup. It would be rewarding to see his numerous regular-season accolades – including five scoring titles, three MVP awards, and four outstanding player honors – culminate in a championship ring, much like exchanging smaller prizes for a grand reward at a carnival. Rewarding his decade-long effort to lead the Edmonton Oilers to their first Cup since 1990 feels overdue, and their fans deserve a celebration with McDavid leading the way.
Seeing him overcome the emotional defeat of last season`s Game 7, where he was named playoff MVP despite the loss, would be significant. It would silence the easy criticism leveled against his status as a hockey icon – the argument that he “never won the Cup,” a hurdle eventually cleared by players like Alex Ovechkin and Nathan MacKinnon. The cathartic moment of him finally hoisting the trophy for the first time is something many anticipate. The king deserves his crowning achievement.
However, the outcome I desire and the Florida Panthers` intentions are likely not aligned. They prevented his Stanley Cup triumph last season, and despite many experts and betting odds favoring McDavid this time, they appear poised to do it again in this Stanley Cup Final rematch.
Here are five key reasons the Panthers are expected to repeat as champions:
Florida is better than last season`s Cup winner
It`s undeniable that the Oilers have improved since last season. Edmonton`s roster is deeper and more cohesive than their 2024 Western Conference-winning squad. They`re scoring more goals per game (4.06) than they did last postseason. Their defensive performance at 5-on-5 has notably improved, allowing only 1.89 goals per 60 minutes compared to 2.55 last postseason. A particularly impressive aspect of their defense is their ability to shut down opponents in the final minutes, evident in their shot suppression during recent wins against the Dallas Stars. Last postseason, they had a minus-6 goal differential in the third period; this season, they are plus-11 through 16 games. The only area seeing a decline year-over-year is their penalty kill, which has given up 16 goals in 16 games this season, compared to four in 25 games last season. Mattias Ekholm`s return is expected to help address this.
But the Panthers have also improved.
Significantly so. And that`s a concerning thought for their opponents.
Florida boasts a plus-27 goal differential through 17 games this postseason, a considerable jump from their plus-11 last season. They are scoring more (3.88 goals per game) and allowing fewer goals (2.29 goals per game). Their 5-on-5 offense has surged from 2.39 goals per 60 minutes last season to 3.53 this season. Their power play has also seen an uptick compared to last year – something to note given the Oilers` penalty kill struggles – and their penalty kill remains roughly the same.
They also made impactful roster upgrades during the season, notably adding Seth Jones to their second defensive pairing and Brad Marchand to their third line.
Last season, Florida`s second pairing featured Niko Mikkola alongside Brandon Montour, a skilled puck-moving defenseman who earned a free-agent deal with Seattle after his performance. When that pair was on the ice, the Panthers registered 49% of shot attempts and averaged 1.84 goals for and 2.03 goals against per 60 minutes. Mikkola`s pairing with Jones represents a clear upgrade: 56% of shot attempts, 4.14 goals for, and 1.69 goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. This duo`s expected goals against is a low 1.48 per 60 minutes, significantly better than Montour and Mikkola`s 2.37 last postseason.
This improvement isn`t solely due to Jones`s addition to the top four. Mikkola has elevated his game considerably, defending more effectively and showing surprising offensive speed for a 6-foot-6 defenseman nicknamed `The Condor.` As Marchand noted, **”Meeks has been a beast. All playoffs, he`s everywhere. I don`t think he gets enough credit. He`s extremely tough to play against. Then when you play with him, and you realize that he`s not flashy, but he closes so quick, he`s always on top of guys and he`s physical.”**
The acquisition of Marchand has also made the Panthers a more formidable team than last season, both on and off the ice. The third line of their Cup-winning team was centered by Anton Lundell with winger Eetu Luostarinen, a reliable pair who skated with various linemates. Adding Marchand after the trade deadline significantly improved this line and the team overall.
Marchand, Lundell, and Luostarinen have controlled 53% of shot attempts at 5-on-5, averaging an impressive 4.2 goals scored and only 0.82 goals against per 60 minutes. Marchand has contributed 14 points in 17 games, while Luostarinen has 13. Lundell has tallied five goals and seven assists, providing incredible center depth as a “Baby Barkov” for the team.
By strengthening that third line with Marchand, the Panthers can maintain their solid top six forward groups. One pairing is Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart, and the other is Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk. They rotate Carter Verhaeghe, one of the playoffs` most clutch scorers, and Evan Rodrigues, an analytics favorite, on the wings of these top two lines. Both combinations have proven successful for Florida.
Beyond their on-ice performance, the Panthers are playing with the poise and confidence of a reigning champion, fortified by the validation that only a Stanley Cup victory can provide.
Bobrovsky vs. Skinner
These two goaltenders have followed similar trajectories this postseason: initially inconsistent or average results early on, followed by dominant runs that began midway through the second round and carried them to the Stanley Cup Final.
“Middling” might be a charitable description of Skinner`s early playoff performance, which included being benched in the first round and only returning when Calvin Pickard was injured against the Vegas Golden Knights. However, from Game 4 against Vegas through to the Cup Final, he has been exceptional, posting a 6-1 record with a .944 save percentage, 1.41 goals-against average, and three shutouts.
Bobrovsky also started slowly but found his form after a Game 4 shutout against the Maple Leafs. Following that game, he went 7-2 with a .944 save percentage, a 1.34 goals-against average, and two shutouts.
Florida`s netminder had a turbulent Stanley Cup Final last season, but concluded it with a decisive 23-save performance in Game 7 at home to secure the Cup. That game solidified the “Playoff Bob” reputation that the Oilers will undoubtedly encounter again this season.
Statistically, both Skinner and Bobrovsky were performing at roughly replacement level over the entirety of the playoffs according to Stathletes. However, over their most recent five games, Bobrovsky (2.35 goals saved above expected) has analytically outperformed Skinner (1.89).
Skinner is playing well enough that he shouldn`t cost Edmonton the series, which is essentially all they can ask from their goaltending tandem. But Bobrovsky, if he maintains his “Playoff Bob” form, possesses the capability to win the series for Florida. That difference could be crucial.
The Panthers are road warriors
The most significant difference year-over-year in this matchup is that the Oilers have home-ice advantage this time. Ironically, this might actually favor the Panthers.
Florida boasts an 8-2 record on the road this postseason, tying for the sixth-best road winning percentage in NHL playoff history (minimum eight road games). Their average of 4.80 goals per game away from home would make them the highest-scoring road playoff team in Stanley Cup history (again, minimum eight road games). Their impressive plus-27 goal differential this postseason? It has been entirely accumulated on the road, where they`ve scored 48 goals and allowed only 21. At home, their differential is even (18 goals for and 18 against).
As defenseman Gustav Forsling put it, **”It`s us against the world. That kind of feeling.”**
There appear to be two main reasons behind the Panthers` road dominance. Firstly, Florida is at its most effective when it simplifies its offensive approach, becoming a direct, physical force.
Verhaeghe explained their strategy: **”Our mindset is just play as simple as we can. Get the puck deep, get on their defense and forecheck, which is our strength.”**
The other reason is psychological: The Panthers thoroughly enjoy silencing a hostile road crowd and leaving the opposing fans disappointed. Verhaeghe confirmed this, saying, **”It`s fun when you`re on the road and it goes quiet. It feels like we`re doing our job.”**
Aleksander Barkov
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl possess the ability to dominate periods, games, and entire series. McDavid, for instance, is coming off a series against Dallas where he registered nine points in just five games.
Florida also has a player of that caliber. Aleksander Barkov doesn`t always receive the same effusive praise as the Oilers` dynamic duo or stars like Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, or Sidney Crosby. He has only surpassed the 90-point mark once in his career, though his points-per-game rate between 2017-25 (1.11) ranks him 12th among all skaters, nestled between Crosby and Cale Makar. He`s not known for being the most vocal or having a flashy personality – as coach Paul Maurice humorously noted, Barkov is **”not doing a podcast when he`s done [playing].”**
While the other players mentioned are Hart Trophy winners, Barkov is a Selke Trophy player, having recently been named the NHL`s best defensive forward for the third time. It`s exceedingly rare for a player to win both; since the Selke was first awarded in 1977-78, only two players (Sergei Fedorov and Bobby Clarke) have won a Hart and a Selke at some point in their careers. Barkov`s highest finish in MVP voting was sixth in 2020-21.
Yet, he is just as much a game-changer and series-influencer as any superstar, though his impact often begins in the defensive zone. Against Edmonton last postseason, the Panthers outscored the Oilers 5-2 with Barkov on the ice across those seven games, significantly controlling both shot attempts and scoring chances.
His exceptional puck control and large frame allow him to create opportunities from seemingly nothing.
Consider his series-clinching goal against Carolina:
Following Game 5, Rodrigues remarked that goal **”speaks to who [Barkov] is as a person.”** Rodrigues elaborated, **”He`s so even-keeled. Doesn`t get too high, doesn`t get too low, and just when games get intense and very emotional, he`s able to play his game and just do the right things over and over again.”**
This leads to arguably the most crucial point supporting this prediction.
They`ll take what Edmonton gives them
Perhaps it`s an overstatement, but the Panthers almost seem built specifically to counter the Oilers. They can match Edmonton`s scoring ability, and their defensive structure is among the best in the NHL. They possess impactful star players along with effective role players. Chaotic road environments don`t faze them. They are well-coached and play with significant physicality, swagger, and antagonism. They are adept at both dishing out and absorbing punishment.
Crucially, they share a special characteristic with other great NHL champions: the willingness to win either on their preferred terms or adapt to whatever conditions their opponents set. Think back to the Western Conference finals. The Dallas Stars seemed to unravel after the Oilers scored first, struggling to generate offense and only managing four shots on Skinner in the third period of must-win games, frustrated by their inability to play their own style.
The Panthers, however, remain composed. They don`t become flustered, lose confidence, or have their hope extinguished when things don`t go their way. They maximize the opportunities they create. Where others might be rushed or panicked, the Panthers are meticulous and patient.
Against Carolina, a defensively stingy team, the Panthers patiently waited for their openings. When they pounced, the games shifted dramatically. In each of their wins against the Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference final, the Panthers scored multiple goals within four minutes of each other. Florida is arguably the most opportunistic, “blood in the water” team in the NHL. In Game 3, they scored five goals in just over nine minutes. In Game 5, it was three goals in under five minutes.
As Barkov stated, **”We go into the game, we know exactly what we need to do. The confidence level is high and everyone`s having fun right now.”**
Prediction: Panthers in six
General Manager Bill Zito and his staff have assembled a Stanley Cup champion whose core players possess the playoff experience, competence, and drive that other teams desperately try to acquire at the trade deadline. The Panthers don`t need to import “rings in the room”; most of their players already have them. Playoff self-assurance is fundamentally ingrained in their team DNA.
Their relentless, “win at all costs” approach has drawn criticism, but it has also propelled them to three consecutive appearances in the Stanley Cup Final.
Based on the Panthers` recent performance and their apparent advantages in this matchup, that approach is likely to earn them a second straight skate with the Stanley Cup.
And if this prediction turns out to be wrong, then Connor McDavid will finally have his championship moment. And honestly, that would be pretty awesome too.
