Which NHL Teams Saw the Biggest Value Shifts This Offseason?

The NHL world is in constant motion, even if the outcome of the last two Stanley Cup finals remained the same (Florida defeating Edmonton). By the time training camps begin in a couple of months, team rosters will look notably different following a busy period of trades and free agent signings.

Since the conclusion of the season, the Vegas Golden Knights secured the biggest acquisition of the offseason. Meanwhile, the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks continued their efforts to climb up from the bottom of the standings. The Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, and Toronto Maple Leafs are facing re-tooling challenges of varying urgency. The Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens have made moves that make them more interesting contenders. Even the two-time champion Panthers had to adjust their lineup despite their focus on retaining their core players.

To evaluate these numerous changes, we will apply a method used previously: tracking the net impact of players joining or leaving a team. This is based on each player`s “established level” of performance, calculated as a three-year weighted average of their Goals Above Replacement (GAR). Using three years helps smooth out unusual seasons and offers a more reliable projection of future performance than relying on single-year stats.

However measured, there were fewer major player movements this summer compared to the last. But among the players who did change teams, which additions proved most beneficial to their new clubs? And which teams might come to regret their offseason decisions (or lack thereof)?

Let`s delve into the teams that experienced the largest gains and losses in value, concluding with a complete ranking of all 32 NHL teams.

Six Teams That Gained the Most Value

1. San Jose Sharks (plus-22.0 net 3-year weighted GAR)

Although the Sharks have been the league`s worst team by goal differential for two straight seasons, they are making steady progress in their rebuild. After a summer of solid gains and minimal losses, their roster, already one of the league`s youngest, has been strengthened by veteran acquisitions on defense, in goal, and at center.

Dmitry Orlov contributed strong GAR numbers from Carolina`s defense, while John Klingberg has the potential to be San Jose`s most impactful addition if he can recapture his previous form. The offseason`s focus was clearly on establishing a structural foundation without compromising the future of their young core, led by Macklin Celebrini.

2. Anaheim Ducks (plus-17.7 net 3-year weighted GAR)

Losing goaltender John Gibson is a setback, but the rise of Lukáš Dostál and the addition of Petr Mrazek as a capable backup help soften the blow. Trevor Zegras, despite his offensive talent, lacked consistency and health to be truly missed. This analysis highlights the value added by Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund to a forward group that ranked 31st in GAR last season, providing much-needed support for the young core. New coach Joel Quenneville, though a controversial hire, now has more talent at his disposal than Ducks coaches have had in years.

3. Seattle Kraken (plus-13.1 net 3-year weighted GAR)

After their defensive performance declined last season (while offense improved), the Kraken`s key offseason addition, Mason Marchment, bolstered both ends of the ice. He`s a physical forward with consecutive 20-goal seasons who is also rated as a strong defensive presence. Combined with adding depth like goaltender Matt Murray and minimal player losses, the Kraken had a solid offseason, reflecting positively on their new leadership team.

4. Montreal Canadiens (plus-11.1 net 3-year weighted GAR)

The Canadiens were already one of the league`s most promising young teams last season, even reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2021. They continued their momentum into the summer by acquiring defenseman Noah Dobson in a trade, landing one of the top young blueliners in the league. Zack Bolduc is another important addition following a breakout season. Montreal`s player losses were manageable, indicating this offseason has accelerated the timeline for their future success.

T-5. Vegas Golden Knights (plus-8.7 net 3-year weighted GAR)

The Knights made the summer`s biggest splash by acquiring Mitch Marner via a sign-and-trade. His 102 points last season would have easily set a new single-season franchise record for Vegas. The cost was high, both in salary (a $96 million, eight-year contract) and in depth (losing Nicolas Roy). However, Vegas already ranked third in total GAR last season and improved their net value this offseason. GM Kelly McCrimmon has consistently shown a willingness to go all-in for another Stanley Cup run with their core led by Jack Eichel.

T-5. Nashville Predators (plus-8.7 net 3-year weighted GAR)

The Predators are back on our list of top net gainers, even after their promising position last season dissolved dramatically. This time, the moves were less high-profile – reliable defensemen like Nick Perbix and Nicolas Hague were added, which should help reinforce a defense that dropped significantly in goals allowed. Much still relies on their existing stars rebounding from below-average performances, but GM Barry Trotz has kept Nashville in a position to recover without needing a full-scale rebuild.

Honorable Mention: Detroit Red Wings (added G John Gibson), New Jersey Devils (RW Evgenii Dadonov), Utah Mammoth (RW JJ Peterka, D Nate Schmidt), Boston Bruins (LW Viktor Arvidsson)

Six Teams That Lost the Most Value

32. Dallas Stars (minus-25.3 net 3-year weighted GAR)

In an offseason defined by major instability, including the firing of coach Peter DeBoer after three consecutive Western Conference Final appearances, Dallas`s net GAR situation represents another challenge. While the core of players like Jake Oettinger and Jason Robertson remains, the Stars significantly changed their supporting cast, losing more three-year GAR value than any other NHL team this summer. Team management clearly believed the previous group had peaked. Time will tell if this level of change pushes the Stars forward or disrupts their balance.

31. Edmonton Oilers (minus-13.1 net 3-year weighted GAR)

Edmonton once again fell short of winning the Cup, losing in the Final for the second straight year. Through the summer`s transactions, the Oilers primarily lost players. They did add Andrew Mangiapane and Curtis Lazar for depth. However, the most significant decision might be the one they didn`t make: sticking with goalies Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard, despite concerns after their low collective save percentage in the Cup Final. This decision, combined with player departures, contributed to their negative GAR balance.

30. Toronto Maple Leafs (minus-12.3 net 3-year weighted GAR)

The continuation of the relationship between Mitch Marner and the Maple Leafs did not materialize, and the talented winger ultimately joined Vegas. This marked the departure of a foundational part of Toronto`s recent core, significantly impacting their value tally. While they did recover some value by acquiring Nicolas Roy, a capable two-way center, and Matias Maccelli, who could benefit from a change of scenery, the player losses clearly outweighed the additions. Toronto still possesses significant top-end talent despite this net loss in established player value.

29. New York Rangers (minus-9.3 net 3-year weighted GAR)

It`s been a busy offseason for the Rangers, including a coaching change and substantial player turnover. They brought in some value but lost even more according to this analysis. The most significant departures were Chris Kreider and K`Andre Miller. On the defensive end, they added Vladislav Gavrikov, an area where they needed reinforcement. The team`s success will largely depend on whether their existing stars can rediscover their form from prior seasons.

T-27. Winnipeg Jets (minus-7.4 net 3-year weighted GAR)

Following a remarkable regular season, there are significant questions about how much the Jets might regress next year. This is particularly true for their offense, which surged to third in the league after years of ranking outside the top 10. The loss of Nikolaj Ehlers (24 goals, 63 points) won`t help. While Winnipeg attempted to bolster their forwards with additions like Gustav Nyquist, the loss of established GAR value suggests a potential step back for the team next season.

T-27. Colorado Avalanche (minus-7.4 net 3-year weighted GAR)

Due to salary cap considerations, Colorado continued to see their supporting cast erode further after peaking with their 2022 Cup win. The team did bring in a noteworthy veteran in Brent Burns, who still provides value despite being past his prime. With an elite core still intact, featuring players like Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon, the Avalanche`s potential remains high. However, this offseason represented another period of roster attrition for the team in Denver.

(Dis)honorable mention: Carolina Hurricanes (lost Ds Brent Burns and Dmitry Orlov), Vancouver Canucks (C Pius Suter), Minnesota Wild (RW Gustav Nyquist)

All-32 Team NHL Rankings: Net GAR Added/Lost This Offseason