Analysis by Mark Schlabach and Paolo Uggetti
OAKMONT, Pa. — Following the first two days at Oakmont Country Club, a mere three competitors out of the 156-player field remain below par: Sam Burns, J.J. Spaun, and Viktor Hovland.
What a demanding U.S. Open this has been!
As the year`s third major championship transitions into the weekend, here’s a summary of what we learned from the second round (concluding Saturday morning) and a look ahead at what to anticipate during the final stages.
How far back do you think players can still contend from?
Historically, the champion on Sunday is often one of the golfers positioned in the top five after 36 holes. However, this may not necessarily hold true at Oakmont Country Club. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, 11 of the last 12 U.S. Open winners were in the top five midway through the tournament. Matt Fitzpatrick in 2022 was the lone exception, starting the weekend tied for 13th.
Only three champions in the 125-year history of the U.S. Open were outside the top 20 after 36 holes. Despite Oakmont`s difficulty, remarkable rounds have been played, such as J.J. Spaun`s 4-under 66 and Sam Burns` 65. It`s plausible that a player four, five, or even more strokes behind could post two strong weekend rounds. Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley suggested a 5-under 65 would likely require rain, and indeed, the skies opened up on Friday night before the second round was complete.
It wouldn`t be surprising to see someone starting at 5-over or even 6-over make a charge, particularly if the leading score stays near even par. However, the most realistic threat from behind is Scottie Scheffler, who is currently at 4-over.
Scheffler showed frustration during Friday`s round but managed to battle through, finishing with a 71 that didn`t help him gain ground but kept him within striking distance, seven shots behind the leader. Oakmont demands precise ball-striking, an area where Scheffler excels. He felt he was definitely not out of the tournament and immediately headed to the practice range, working with his coach. If he resolves whatever swing issues he`s facing, he poses a significant threat to the field, similar to how he found his form at the PGA Championship.
What is the weather forecast for the weekend, and what impact could it have?
As the second round concluded Friday night in Pittsburgh, a heavy downpour soaked the course, which will undoubtedly change conditions for Saturday and Sunday. More rain is expected overnight and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Saturday, with a 90% chance of rain. Sunday also has a 70% chance.
Without significant wind, the course is likely to play softer for the weekend contenders. While this might suggest lower scores, the rough will become even more challenging, and the USGA retains the option to set difficult pin positions and green speeds to maintain the tournament`s tough character. Ben Griffin, who is at even par, stated he doesn`t mind playing in rain (barring lightning/tornadoes), finding it more of an annoyance. He noted it typically softens conditions, potentially making it slightly easier, or requiring more attention to spin control. He is ready for whatever the weather brings.
Who do you think is the favorite now?
Around 10 to 15 golfers could potentially win this event. Sam Burns, the current leader at 3 under, has improved in majors, tying for ninth at last year`s U.S. Open after previous struggles. With five PGA Tour wins, perhaps this is his week. Burns is an exceptional putter, using only 55 putts over the first two rounds. His iron play has been stellar (+2 strokes on approach), and his short game is also strong (+2 strokes).
Burns has already carded 11 birdies, the same number Dustin Johnson had when winning the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont. Burns feels the course encourages accepting difficult lies and playing aggressively rather than trying for perfection. This is his eighth time holding or sharing the 36-hole lead on the PGA Tour; he won one of the previous seven (the 2021 Valspar Championship).
Seven of the nine U.S. Open champions crowned at Oakmont were first-time major winners. Viktor Hovland, one of the three players under par, fits this profile perfectly. Hovland`s stats varied greatly between rounds: gaining over four strokes on approach Thursday but losing over three putting; then losing on approach Friday but gaining almost two putting. Overall, he ranks well in strokes gained off the tee, approach, and short game, but is 111th in putting. His path to victory seems simple: improve his putting, and his strong ball-striking will keep him in contention. Notably, while many players seemed frustrated by Oakmont`s difficulty, Hovland remained remarkably composed, stating he never came close to losing his temper.
Who is a potential sleeper to contend over the weekend?
Could a former world No. 1 and Masters champion be considered a sleeper? Adam Scott, 44, is tied for fourth at even par after two rounds of 70. He described his strategy as playing “old-man-par golf.” According to Elias, he is the fifth-oldest player in the top five after 36 holes in the last 20 years at the U.S. Open.
Scott acknowledges the course is tough but has played steadily, avoiding big errors and balancing bogeys with birdies (five of each in round one, three of each in round two). He`s driving well (313 yards average, hitting 17 of 28 fairways) and gaining about two strokes off the tee. His approach play is particularly strong, hitting 27 of 36 greens in regulation (second in the field) and gaining over two strokes. Playing from the fairway has reduced stress. Scott had a quiet season before this event, missing the Masters cut but tying for 19th at Quail Hollow. Despite some writing him off, he`s proving he still has contending golf in him. When asked about his window to win a major, he simply said, “Ajar.”
Another player who thrives in tough conditions like these is Brooks Koepka, just five shots back with eight players ahead of him. The two-time U.S. Open champion briefly reached 3 under early Friday but dropped shots later, finishing with a 77. Koepka excels in major championship tests. He feels recent work with his coach has improved his swing, producing a consistent, desired ball flight. Like Hovland, Koepka has struggled around the greens, losing strokes with both short game and putting. If these areas improve slightly, he could become a significant factor this weekend.
Who were the biggest disappointments?
Defining the biggest disappointment is difficult given the number of high-profile players who missed the cut. This list includes Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Phil Mickelson, Cameron Smith, Ludvig Åberg (all at 8 over); Tommy Fleetwood (9 over); Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau (both 10 over); Sepp Straka (11 over); Justin Thomas (12 over); Justin Rose (14 over); and Shane Lowry (17 over).
Bryson DeChambeau stands out, especially after winning the U.S. Open recently and contending at the PGA Championship last month. Oakmont proved too difficult for him, culminating in a 7-over 77 on Friday. His second round included eight bogeys, a double bogey, and three birdies. Usually a strong putter, he lost about 1½ strokes on the greens, needing 61 putts over 36 holes, seemingly never mastering the speed. He also struggled with accuracy off the tee (13 of 28 fairways) and hit only 20 of 36 greens in regulation.
