U.S. Open 2025: Ranking Favorites, Contenders, Hopefuls

OAKMONT, Pa. — Could the toughest test in men`s professional golf become even more demanding at Oakmont Country Club, the host of this week`s 125th U.S. Open? Early reports from tour pros who have previewed the updated course outside Pittsburgh in recent weeks have included vivid descriptions such as `carnage,` `cooked beyond belief,` and `the hardest course in the world.`

Get ready with your popcorn to witness who can navigate the ankle-high rough, narrowed fairways, infamous Church Pews bunker, and lightning-fast, firm greens that might make many golfers feel like they are putting downhill on an ice rink.

Xander Schauffele commented, “I`ve heard from several players, it`s the hardest course they`ve ever played… Not much detail on why. Just it`s long and the rough is impossible, and you can end up hitting 50-yard pitches trying to get up and down for par on every hole, something of that nature.”

This marks the 10th time Oakmont has hosted the U.S. Open. The United States Golf Association frequently returns to this venue precisely because it consistently offers players the most difficult challenge of the season.

Justin Thomas, who played a practice round at Oakmont two weeks ago, added, “I would say all of the rumors and everything are pretty on point.”

Here is an assessment of the field, categorizing players as favorites, contenders, hopefuls, and others:

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Tier I: The Clear Favorite

Scottie Scheffler

Ignore any notion of Scottie Scheffler having a slow start. The world`s top-ranked golfer arrives at Oakmont Country Club in phenomenal form, having won three of his last four tournaments, including a dominant victory (by a combined 17 strokes!) at the Memorial Tournament. He has become incredibly reliable in the final rounds, converting his last seven 54-hole leads.

Oakmont holds a notable memory for him; he shot a 1-under 69 in his first-ever round in a major at the 2016 U.S. Open here as a 19-year-old sophomore from the University of Texas. He ultimately missed the cut by a single stroke after following up with an 8-over 78. If he maintains accuracy off the tee, he will be exceedingly difficult to overcome this week.

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Tier II: The Guys Who Can Win

This tier features players who are genuine contenders for the U.S. Open title. They possess the necessary skill set, mental fortitude, and experience to perform under pressure through four rounds on a course traditionally considered the most challenging among the majors.

Bryson DeChambeau

DeChambeau claimed his second U.S. Open title at Pinehurst, despite missing nearly half the fairways (57%) over the four rounds. His victory stemmed from outdriving the field (averaging 310.9 yards), hitting greens, and exceptional putting. He will need greater accuracy off the tee at Oakmont. While he wasn`t satisfied with his iron play at the Masters and PGA Championship, he has impressively finished tied for sixth or better in five of the last six majors.

Rory McIlroy

Rory will attempt to move past the difficulties of last year`s U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2, where he lost a 2-stroke lead over the final five holes, missing short putts on Nos. 16 and 18 to finish one shot behind DeChambeau. McIlroy missed the cut in his sole previous start at Oakmont nine years ago. His confidence off the tee seems shaky currently; he missed the cut at last week`s RBC Canadian Open, hitting only 13 of 28 fairways. He reportedly planned to test several new drivers over the weekend in search of one that suits him.

Collin Morikawa

The two-time major champion has finished runner-up twice this season. His last victory on tour was over 19 months ago at the Zozo Championship in October 2023. This win drought is due to end. He is exceptionally accurate off the tee (72.9%) and is a world-class ball striker (67.6% greens in regulation), attributes that are highly valuable at Oakmont.

Jon Rahm

The LIV Golf League star briefly threatened Scottie Scheffler in the final round of the PGA Championship but struggled down the stretch. Rahm, the 2021 U.S. Open winner, has finished tied for 12th or better in four of his last five appearances in the tournament. However, significant inaccuracy off the tee in a recent event would spell disaster on the Oakmont layout.

Russell Henley

Henley earned his fifth PGA Tour victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and has followed up with strong finishes: tied for eighth at the RBC Heritage and fifth at the Memorial. He tied for seventh at 1 under in the 2024 U.S. Open. Henley ranks highly on tour in strokes gained: approach and around the green, and is tied for 12th in driving accuracy (67.7%), which will serve him well at Oakmont.

Sepp Straka

Straka is arguably one of the more underrated golfers on tour, having already won twice this season. He has also accumulated five top-10s and 11 top-25 finishes in 13 starts, seemingly securing his spot on the European Ryder Cup team. He hopes for a better performance this week after missing the cut at the Masters and PGA Championship. He is accurate off the tee (68.5% fairways hit), leads the tour in greens in regulation (71.4%), and ranks 17th in strokes gained: putting.

Xander Schauffele

Schauffele`s putting seems to be improving, addressing a key area since his return from a rib injury. He has the opportunity to secure the third leg of a career Grand Slam after winning the PGA Championship and Open Championship last year. Remarkably, he has finished in the top 10 in seven of his eight U.S. Open starts, including a tie for seventh last year.

Ludvig Åberg

Inconsistency is perhaps the only thing preventing Åberg from being firmly in the top echelon of the sport. The 25-year-old Swedish golfer won the Genesis Invitational and finished solo seventh at the Masters. Despite some surprising statistical rankings in strokes gained categories, his overall game profile appears well-suited for a U.S. Open victory.

Hideki Matsuyama

The 2019 Masters champion missed the cut at the PGA Championship, ending his streak of 19 consecutive made cuts in majors. He has achieved top-10 finishes in two of his last three U.S. Opens. However, his driving accuracy (55.3%) could be a significant concern on the Oakmont layout.

Justin Thomas

JT`s strong start to the season, featuring a playoff victory and three runner-up finishes, has cooled off somewhat. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship and tied for 31st at the Memorial after a difficult opening-round 80, although his play improved significantly on the weekend.

Shane Lowry

Excluding a missed cut at the PGA Championship, the Irishman has demonstrated consistent play as he prepares for his return in July to Royal Portrush, where he won the 2019 Open Championship (Lowry and McIlroy won last year`s Zurich Classic team event). He tied for runner-up at the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont, finishing three strokes behind Dustin Johnson after holding a 4-shot lead entering the final round.

Harris English

The 35-year-old secured his fifth tour win at the Farmers Insurance Open in late January and followed it up with his career-best major finish, a tie for second at the PGA Championship. If he refines his iron play and touch around the greens, his strong putting could propel him into contention again.

Patrick Cantlay

It has been more than 2.5 years since Cantlay`s last trophy, but he was in contention late on Sunday at Pinehurst, tying for third. He ranks in the top 10 in both strokes gained total and approach.

Justin Rose

The 2013 U.S. Open winner finished runner-up at the 2024 Open Championship and lost a playoff at the Masters in April, indicating he can still compete at the highest level. However, he has missed the cut in four of his last five U.S. Open appearances.

Tommy Fleetwood

Fleetwood has been remarkably consistent this season, with top-22 finishes in all but two of his 12 starts. He tied for fourth at the Charles Schwab Challenge and 16th at the Memorial. He is still seeking his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Viktor Hovland

Hovland`s fluctuating relationship with his golf swing remains an ongoing narrative, but he seems to be in a better place recently. He is an exceptional iron player and generally hits enough fairways, but his short game and putting will be severely tested on Oakmont`s challenging greens.

Aaron Rai

If keeping the ball in the fairway is essential for contending at Oakmont, Rai is a prime candidate, leading the tour in driving accuracy (73.4%). He will need to perform better on the greens.

Tyrrell Hatton

USGA course setups haven`t historically suited Hatton, with only one top-10 finish (tied for sixth in 2018). Despite this, he has consistently played like one of the world`s best golfers for some time now.

Corey Conners

The Canadian golfer consistently hits fairways (68.8%) and greens (70%) and has shown improved putting this season. He tied for ninth at Pinehurst last year.

Ben Griffin

It`s remarkable to think that just four years ago, the former North Carolina star was working as a mortgage loan officer and nearly left the sport. Griffin recently won the Zurich Classic team event and secured his first individual PGA Tour title at the Charles Schwab Challenge, followed by a runner-up finish at the Memorial last week. He enters his first U.S. Open in stellar form.

Joaquín Niemann

A four-time winner on the LIV Golf League this year, Niemann finally achieved a top-10 finish in a major with a tie for eighth at the PGA Championship. This performance could be the breakthrough he needed to make significant noise in the major championships.

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Tier III: If Everything Goes Right

This tier lists players who could potentially lift the U.S. Open trophy if they have an exceptional week. The list includes former major champions, promising rising stars, and players whose games have been developing this season. The question is, can it all come together for them at Oakmont?

Tony Finau

Finau appeared to find his form with recent top-20 finishes at the Truist Championship and PGA Championship. He tied for third last year after a strong final round 67.

Brian Harman

Harman, who won the 2023 Open Championship in challenging conditions, has made the cut in his last five U.S. Opens, tying for 21st at Pinehurst. He won the Valero Texas Open in April and tied for third at the RBC Heritage.

Cameron Smith

Smith`s renowned putting skills would seem to make him a good fit for Oakmont`s greens. However, missing the cut in his last three majors raises questions about whether his LIV Golf schedule provides enough competitive sharpness to contend at this level.

Matt Fitzpatrick

His tie for eighth at the PGA Championship suggests Fitzpatrick`s form is returning. He won the 2022 U.S. Open at The Country Club in challenging conditions.

Jordan Spieth

Since becoming the youngest U.S. Open champion since Bobby Jones in 1923 with his win at Chambers Bay in 2015, Spieth has recorded only one top-20 finish (tied for 19th four years ago) in nine subsequent starts.

Brooks Koepka

The two-time U.S. Open winner, who once approached majors with unmatched confidence, hasn`t finished in the top 10 in a major since winning his third PGA Championship in 2023. He missed the cut in the first two majors this year.

Min Woo Lee

Known affectionately as `Dr. Chipinski`, Lee has three consecutive strong finishes in the U.S. Open, including a tie for fifth two years ago. His form has been inconsistent since the Masters.

Sam Burns

After a slow start to the major season, Burns has shown improved form over the past couple of months. He seemed to have a major breakthrough by tying for ninth at the 2024 U.S. Open and leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting, which will be invaluable on Oakmont`s demanding greens.

Ryan Fox

The golfer from New Zealand secured his spot in the field by defeating Burns in a playoff at the RBC Canadian Open on Sunday. This was Fox`s second victory in his last four starts, having also won the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic.

Andrew Novak

Novak has been one of the breakout performers this season, teaming up with Griffin to win the Zurich Classic and losing a playoff to Thomas at the RBC Heritage. This marks only his second appearance in the U.S. Open.

Patrick Reed

While Reed consistently appears on the leaderboard at Augusta National, he hasn`t had similar success in the other three majors. His best U.S. Open finish was solo fourth in 2018.

Robert MacIntyre

The Scottish golfer won two national championships last year: the Canadian Open and Scottish Open. He expressed a desire to add a U.S. Open title and described Oakmont on a simulator as “absolute carnage.”

Daniel Berger

Berger has a couple of top-10 finishes in the U.S. Open in his career. He was playing well before back-to-back missed cuts recently.

Davis Riley

Riley had a significant breakthrough at the PGA Championship, tying for second for his best finish in a major.

Tom Kim

Kim has three consecutive finishes of 26th or better in the U.S. Open, including a tie for eighth in 2023. He has struggled on tour over the past two months.

Maverick McNealy

This is McNealy`s first U.S. Open start since he qualified as an 18-year-old amateur at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2014.

Akshay Bhatia

After a dip in form in April and early May, Bhatia has played better in recent weeks. He tied for 16th at the 2024 U.S. Open and possesses the necessary shots, particularly on the greens, to contend.

Thomas Detry

Detry is not particularly accurate off the tee (56.6%) and has had challenges with his irons, but his exceptional putting helped him tie for 14th at Pinehurst last year.

Si Woo Kim

What other remarkable feats does Kim have in store after recording the longest ace in major championship history at the PGA Championship?

Keegan Bradley

The U.S. Ryder Cup team captain has missed the cut at the U.S. Open in four of his last six starts, with his best finish being a tie for seventh in 2022.

Jason Day

Day tied for eighth the last time the U.S. Open was held at Oakmont. He has not competed since missing the cut at the PGA Championship due to a wrist injury.

J.T. Poston

Poston achieved his best major finish, a tie for fifth, at the PGA Championship. His form was trending well before a recent missed cut.

Denny McCarthy

McCarthy has had three consecutive solid finishes in the U.S. Open, tying for seventh in 2022. His putting prowess gives him an opportunity to make some noise.

Michael Kim

Kim has cooled off after a hot streak this spring with five consecutive top-15 finishes. This is only his third U.S. Open start; he was the low amateur and tied for 17th in 2013.

Davis Thompson

Thompson`s tie for ninth at Pinehurst last year was his best major finish. The 26-year-old is immensely talented but still seeks consistency.

Dustin Johnson

DJ won the last U.S. Open played at Oakmont, overcoming a final-round scoring controversy. He has not been a significant factor in majors over the past two seasons.

Wyndham Clark

Clark`s form has been declining for weeks. His inaccuracy off the tee (56.5%) and struggling iron play (63.8%) are likely not a formula for success at Oakmont.

Sungjae Im

He is another player who consistently keeps his tee shots in the fairway (68.7%), though he has missed the cut in his last three starts in this tournament.

J.J. Spaun

Spaun has finished runner-up twice on tour this season. He missed the cut in his only previous U.S. Open start in 2021.

Jacob Bridgeman

The former Clemson star could be a dark horse contender this week. He is one of the best putters on tour, has four top-10 finishes, and performed well at Oakmont in the 2021 U.S. Amateur.

Rasmus Højgaard

Højgaard is a five-time winner on the DP World Tour. He missed the cut in his only previous U.S. Open start in 2020.

Joe Highsmith

Highsmith has been a breakout performer this season, winning the Cognizant Classic and tying for eighth at the PGA Championship.

Ryan Gerard

Gerard will look to build on his surprising tie for eighth at the PGA Championship.

Lucas Glover

Glover`s putting has once again gone cold, limiting his chances to contend this season. He missed the cut in his two previous U.S. Open appearances at Oakmont, in 2007 and 2016.

Matthieu Pavon

Pavon became the first French golfer to win on the PGA Tour in January 2024 at the Farmers Insurance Open held at Torrey Pines, a U.S. Open course. He finished solo fifth at Pinehurst last year.

Nick Taylor

The Canadian golfer is a five-time winner on the PGA Tour but is still seeking success in major championships.

Taylor Pendrith

Another golfer from Canada, Pendrith has finished in the top 20 in two of his last three majors, tying for 16th at the 2024 U.S. Open and for fifth at last month`s PGA Championship.

Adam Scott

The 2013 Masters champion`s peak years on the course are likely behind him. He has just one top-10 finish in a major since tying for seventh at the 2019 U.S. Open.

Cameron Young

Young, who was once ranked 13th in the world, had to go through final qualifying to make the field. He has shown improved form recently.

Bud Cauley

After missing over three seasons due to injuries from a 2018 car accident, Cauley is back in the U.S. Open for the first time in eight years.

Stephan Jager

Jäger, from Germany, tied for 21st at the 2024 U.S. Open. He started strong at the PGA Championship before fading on the weekend.

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Tier IV: Hey, Miracles Happen

These players are considered long shots. This tier includes a few older former major champions and PGA Tour regulars.

Did Vegas experience a moment of brilliance at the PGA Championship when he held the 18- and 36-hole leads and tied for fifth? He has never finished in the top 40 in the U.S. Open. Woodland won the 2019 U.S. Open, Kirk is a six-time tour winner, and Leishman has won 14 times globally, including once in the LIV Golf League. They are certainly capable of putting together four solid rounds if their form allows.

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Tier V: Happy to Make the Cut

These players are generally not expected to be among the primary contenders unless unforeseen circumstances dramatically alter the tournament.

Mickelson, a six-time major champion, recently indicated that this might be his final opportunity to complete the career Grand Slam. This is the last year of his five-year exemption earned by winning the 2021 PGA Championship, where he became the oldest major winner at 50. Mickelson, now 54, has finished runner-up in the U.S. Open six times, most recently in 2013. He has missed the cut in four of his last five starts in the event and hasn`t finished in the top 40 since tying for 28th in 2014.

Dunlap won twice on tour last season, once as an amateur and again as a rookie after turning professional. However, he has struggled significantly since then, missing the cut in six of his last nine starts. He has not played on the weekend in any of his five major appearances over the past two seasons.

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Tier VI: The Qualifiers

This category includes the remaining players among the 65 qualifiers who are not regular PGA Tour members listed in the tiers above or below. They earned their spots by advancing through local and final qualifying stages. The last qualifier to win the U.S. Open was Lucas Glover in 2009.

Nicholas, from New York, played football for one season at Yale before joining the golf team for four years. His grandfather, Dr. James A. Nicholas, was an orthopedic surgeon who performed knee surgery on Jets quarterback Joe Namath four times. Nicholas was the Ivy League Player of the Year in 2019.

Hicks, 50, remarkably held a share of the first-round lead at 3 under in the 2008 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, famously won by Tiger Woods over Rocco Mediate. Hicks, now a golf instructor in Boca Raton, Florida, finished tied for 74th at 17 over. Haefner, who played at Wayne State University, delivered one of the most dramatic moments of final qualifying, sinking a 60-foot putt on the 36th hole to earn medalist honors.

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Tier VII: The Amateurs

This tier features the amateur players who will aim to replicate the success of past stars like Cantlay, Mickelson, Rahm, and Spieth by earning a medal as the low amateur before potentially turning professional.

There are a significant 15 amateurs in the field, with nine advancing through final qualifying. Many of them bring compelling stories. Vogt, 34, grew up in Pittsburgh and once worked as a caddie at Oakmont. He played at Butler University and is now a dentist in Indianapolis. He earned medalist honors in final qualifying in Walla Walla, Washington, where he wore a ribbon on his hat in tribute to his late father, who used to track his scores. Howell, 17, is a rising high school senior committed to play at the University of Georgia in 2026. He shot 18 under with no bogeys over two rounds in final qualifying. La Sasso, a junior at Ole Miss, qualified by winning last month`s NCAA Division I individual national championship. He set a program record for lowest scoring average (69.48) and won three times this past season. Tankersley, his Ole Miss teammate, also made the field through open qualifying. Gutschewski, a recent high school graduate heading to the University of Florida, earned his spot by winning the 2024 U.S. Junior Amateur. His father, Scott, is a three-time Korn Ferry Tour winner, and his older brother played college golf.