By Rachel Kryshak
The NHL preseason is nearing its conclusion, with the regular season scheduled to commence on October 7.
Last season offered numerous instances of performance regression, building on the events of the 2023-24 season. Almost every player highlighted in last year`s article experienced a notable decline. Auston Matthews, Sam Reinhart, Jonathan Marchessault, Zach Hyman, and the Vancouver Canucks all showed significant drops compared to their prior season`s output. This, of course, does not preclude them from a rebound this year.
Regression candidates are identified as those most likely to experience a 10% or greater decrease in production (goals or points), based on their current circumstances. The primary factor for potential regression is shooting percentage; many players on this list significantly surpassed their expected shooting rates. Other contributing factors include anticipated changes in player roles, team dynamics, and facing tougher competitive matchups.
Morgan Geekie
Left Wing, Boston Bruins
Before last season, Morgan Geekie`s career-high shooting percentage stood at 13%. What was his shooting percentage in the 2024-25 season? An impressive 22%!
Playing on Boston`s top line, this translated to 33 goals, nearly doubling his previous personal best of 17. It is highly improbable that such a performance will be replicated for two consecutive seasons.
Geekie`s goal-scoring surged, his role with the Bruins expanded, and his offensive zone starts increased from 12.1% to 19.1%. According to MoneyPuck, his 5-on-5 on-ice goals percentage was 58% against an expected figure of 52.7%. Given the current state of the Bruins, a regression in these numbers is also reasonably anticipated.
Should Geekie continue to play on the top line, his goal tally is expected to align with that of a complementary player in an elite line, playing alongside a top scorer (David Pastrnak). This means Geekie is more likely to score between 22 and 26 goals, rather than reaching the 30-goal mark again.
He will remain a key player for the Bruins, receiving ample ice time on the top line, but this also brings more challenging matchups. There`s no hiding on the top line; he will have less time and space to operate, making a drop in goal production quite reasonable.
Mark Scheifele
Center, Winnipeg Jets
Scheifele`s 2024-25 season was extraordinary, with 39 goals and 87 points. In seasons where he netted 38, 39, and 42 goals, his shooting percentage hovered around 20%, which is three percentage points higher than his career average. He also scored over 10 power-play goals in each of those seasons, a likely area where regression will occur.
Last season, Scheifele achieved a career-high 25 power-play points. While he should still accumulate around 20, the departure of Nikolaj Ehlers from the top power-play unit will impact a special teams unit that was ranked best in the NHL. It`s improbable the Jets would sustain a 29% power-play success rate even with Ehlers; without him, it becomes even less likely.
A decrease in power-play effectiveness, combined with an expected regression in shooting percentage, should see Scheifele score approximately 30 goals and 77 points. While this still represents top-line center production, a regression of over 10% overall and nearly 25% in goal scoring would constitute a step back after his phenomenal 2024-2025 campaign.
Aliaksei Protas
Left Wing, Washington Capitals
Many Capitals players demonstrated astonishing statistical performances in the 2024-2025 season, arguably none more so than Protas.
The imposing forward (6 feet 6 inches, 247 pounds) had a significant breakout last season, more than doubling his previous point total and scoring 30 goals, far exceeding his prior career high of six! Protas` career-high shooting percentage was 8.8%… until last season, when it skyrocketed to 21.1%. According to MoneyPuck, he scored 8.3 goals above expected in all situations.
Undeniably, his shot improved dramatically, but a 21% shooting percentage is unsustainable. Even the greatest sniper in hockey history, his teammate Alex Ovechkin, shot 18.6% last season. Based on this statistic alone, substantial regression is anticipated. If Protas is truly an 11-12% shooter, a more plausible goal output for him would be around 20 goals, which is 33% less than last season`s tally.
Furthermore, Protas scored zero power-play goals. As long as Ovechkin is playing, the 24-year-old is unlikely to receive many shooting opportunities on the power play. Frankly, few Caps players do.
Protas is exceptionally talented and caught many teams off guard last season. This will not be the case this season, and he will face tougher matchups as opponents become more aware of his scoring threat. He is more likely to be a 55- to 60-point power winger than a player achieving 65+ points.
Brandon Hagel
Left Wing, Tampa Bay Lightning
Hagel`s reputation significantly increased after his performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off, despite three consecutive seasons of quality offensive production in Tampa Bay.
He is a relentless presence for the Lightning and a short-handed specialist, accumulating seven points while on the penalty kill last season, nearly half his career total in such situations (16). While Hagel is one of the league`s most dangerous penalty killers, it is improbable he will replicate such high offensive production while short-handed.
A 90-point season garnered considerable attention across the NHL, but Hagel`s shooting percentage was a relatively sustainable 15.4%. Hagel is projected to play on the second line with Anthony Cirelli, another excellent two-way player. While he will likely maintain a near point-per-game pace, it is improbable that Hagel will hit 90 points in that role without significant time skating alongside Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. His genuine talent points to a 75-80 point player, which is an elite output for a second-liner, but a production drop of almost 15% should be expected.
Mark Stone
Right Wing, Vegas Golden Knights
One of the NHL`s premier two-way wingers faces several challenges this season.
Firstly, he has played more than 60 games only three times in the last decade. Even accounting for the COVID-19 season, no one following the NHL would argue that Mark Stone`s health can be consistently relied upon. Last season, he was uncharacteristically healthy yet still managed to play in only 66 of 82 games, accumulating 67 points. Stone is 33 years old and has a significant history of back injuries; these issues do not improve with age.
Moreover, Stone has justifiably lost his spot alongside Jack Eichel because, in case you haven`t heard, Mitch Marner is now with the Golden Knights. This will diminish Stone`s opportunities to play alongside one of the NHL`s top centers, although Stone should still receive chances on the top power-play unit.
The regression boils down to Stone`s injury history, a reduced role on the second line, and the notable drop from Eichel to William Karlsson is sufficient to warrant a 10% decrease in even-strength offensive production. When all these factors are considered, it is difficult to envision Stone having a second consecutive season of 65+ points. However, if he remains healthy and plays all 82 games for the first time in his career, he is projected for 68 points.
Matt Duchene
Center, Dallas Stars
Duchene is expected to be the third-line center for the Stars this season, and it is challenging to recall any third-line center who recorded 82 points.
He should continue to receive power-play time, but a third-line role behind Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston will restrict his ice time and opportunities to generate offense. Furthermore, Duchene posted a 19.7% shooting percentage last season, his second-highest career mark, compared to his career average of 13.6%. With fewer opportunities, it is not guaranteed that Duchene will manage 150 shots this season. Combined with an expected regression in his shooting percentage, his projection of 21 goals and 40 assists is excellent for a third-line player, but represents a drop from the point-per-game season he achieved in 2024-2025.
Age is also not in Duchene`s favor. Considering age curves, it would not be surprising to see his production fall by over 20%, regardless of ice time or offensive opportunities granted. The 34-year-old is immensely talented; however, Father Time seemingly catches everyone not named Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin.
He will be one of the best bottom-six players in the NHL, but it is difficult to imagine him matching last season`s production.
