Portrush, Northern Ireland — The culminating major championship of the year has arrived, and if the 2019 Open Championship serves as any indicator, Royal Portrush is once again poised to deliver a spectacular setting for four enthralling rounds of golf, culminating in the crowning of the champion golfer of the year.
This year’s major tournaments have already provided captivating outcomes: World No. 2 Rory McIlroy achieved his career Grand Slam at the Masters, while the world’s top-ranked player, Scottie Scheffler, added another major title by winning the PGA Championship. Subsequently, journeyman J.J. Spaun surprised the golf world last month by outperforming the entire field, triumphing at Oakmont for his maiden major victory at the U.S. Open.
All three champions are participating in this week’s Open, alongside other elite players globally who aim to etch their names into the narrative of this major season.
Here is a detailed assessment of the 25 golfers most likely to hoist the coveted Claret Jug this Sunday.
1. Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler`s dominance in major championships often makes pre-tournament analysis straightforward: he possesses the unique ability to simply overwhelm the competition. The key question for the three-time major winner at this Open Championship is how effectively his formidable game, honed on American courses, will adapt to the distinctive challenges of links golf.
His performance at the Scottish Open this week saw him finish tied for eighth. Scheffler`s record at the Open Championship has been, relatively speaking, the most varied among the majors. In four starts, his best finish is a tie for seventh at last year`s Open (he was tied for eighth in his 2021 debut), with two finishes just outside the top 20 in between. To underscore his consistency, since 2021 (his first year competing in all four majors), this is the only major where Scheffler has more than one finish outside the top 20 across 19 starts.
Therefore, it`s safe to assume the world`s premier golfer is poised to contend vigorously this week.
2. Jon Rahm
Perhaps no one has shown a more consistent, upward trajectory throughout this year than Jon Rahm. Beyond his numerous top-10 finishes on the LIV Tour, his performances in the year’s most significant events have been particularly noteworthy. Since last year`s Open Championship at Royal Troon, where he quietly secured a tie for seventh, Rahm has significantly elevated his game.
At the Masters, he finished 14th, and he followed that by entering the back nine at Quail Hollow with a genuine opportunity to win the PGA Championship. While the Spaniard couldn`t ultimately overtake Scheffler, his determined fight there and at Oakmont, leading to a tied-for-seventh finish, felt emblematic of Rahm`s competitive spirit. Few players generate as much competitive intensity as he does, and given his established place in European golf history, it feels appropriate for a Claret Jug to grace his resume. Rahm`s recent form suggests Portrush is well-suited to provide him with that very opportunity.
3. Rory McIlroy
And so, we return to this moment. The Open is back in Rory McIlroy`s homeland, and he should—with emphasis on should—be a strong contender for his sixth major championship. In 2019, similar expectations prevailed, only for McIlroy to drive his first tee shot out of bounds and subsequently miss the cut, leading to an anticlimactic end to a highly anticipated week.
Much has changed since then: McIlroy has claimed a Green Jacket and is now a career Grand Slam winner. However, he has also underperformed somewhat since that historic victory in April. He has openly discussed struggles with motivation, yet acknowledges that the specific location of this tournament in Northern Ireland should ignite something within him. That spark might have arrived a week early; at the Scottish Open, McIlroy displayed some of his best golf since the Masters, carding rounds of 68-65-66-68 to finish tied for second.
4. Bryson DeChambeau
Similar to the ongoing fascination with Bryson DeChambeau`s strategic approach to Augusta National year after year, I`m always intrigued by how his game translates—or fails to translate—to links golf. In seven Open appearances, DeChambeau has only one top-10 finish (Royal Liverpool in 2022) and has missed the cut three times, including last year at Royal Troon.
Anything is plausible this week for the two-time U.S. Open champion. You could tell me DeChambeau will somehow refine his approach game and rely on his short game for a dominant victory at Portrush, and I would believe it. Alternatively, you could tell me he`ll struggle to keep his shots in the fairway under difficult conditions and miss the cut. This particular style of course doesn`t ideally suit DeChambeau`s game, but observing his attempts to master it alone justifies the admission price.
5. Xander Schauffele
The reigning champion is positioned at No. 5 primarily due to a relatively quiet year since his two major victories last year. After dealing with a rib injury early in the season, Schauffele took a break and then needed time to regain his form. He has secured only one top-10 finish this season, and while his approach game (ranking in the top 10 for strokes gained on tour) has been strong, it has had to compensate for an uncharacteristically subpar year with his driver, short game, and putting.
One of Schauffele`s most valuable attributes, his overall consistency, was instrumental in his comeback victory last year at Troon. This week at Portrush will likely demand a similar level of unwavering play.
6. Shane Lowry
Perhaps this ranking is a bit high for Shane Lowry, but in 2019, he capitalized on the emotional surge of playing in a region he knows intimately, securing a dominant six-shot victory. The energy Lowry will draw from the fans` cheers at a venue where he has already triumphed should significantly enhance his prospects this week.
Like McIlroy, he will be an emotional favorite. Although his game hasn`t been in peak form at the majors this year (with two missed cuts and a tied for 42nd at the Masters), he does have four top-10 finishes on Tour, and it would not be surprising if he performs exceptionally well again at Portrush.
7. Viktor Hovland
Predicting Viktor Hovland`s performance at a major championship these days is truly a coin toss. Despite his pronouncements in press conferences about his swing feeling off and his pursuit of the perfect feel, he might still find himself contending, as he did at Oakmont last month where he finished third and had a genuine chance to win on the back nine.
Earlier this year, Hovland missed three consecutive cuts, yet shortly thereafter, he won the Valspar Championship. Last year, he finished third at the PGA Championship but also missed the cut at the other three majors, including the Open. Similar to DeChambeau, Hovland possesses the game to win this week, but the disparity between his peak performance and his struggles is as wide as anyone near the top of this list.
8. Collin Morikawa
Few golfers in the world are striking the ball as effectively as Collin Morikawa has this season. His ball-striking remains as elite as ever, yet despite securing four top-10 finishes this season, he has been unable to cross the finish line and claim his first tournament victory since the 2023 Zozo Championship.
Morikawa understands how to win this tournament—he accomplished it in 2021 at Royal St. George`s—and although his game has objectively improved since then, there seems to be a missing element in his ability to string together four exceptional rounds at the sport`s premier events. This year, he finished 14th at the Masters but has regressed, finishing tied for 50th at the PGA Championship and tied for 23rd at the U.S. Open. Theoretically, on a course like Portrush, Morikawa`s iron play and driving accuracy should put him squarely in contention. The performance of his putting (currently ranked 99th on tour this season) will ultimately determine how high he can climb the leaderboard.
9. Ludvig Åberg
There was a period, immediately following Ludvig Åberg`s victory at this year`s Genesis Invitational, when he seemed to be the dominant topic in golf. Since then, Åberg has experienced a slight slump, missing four cuts (including at both the PGA and U.S. Open) and achieving only one top-10 finish (seventh place at the Masters). However, Åberg is quietly regaining form. At the Scottish Open last week, he appeared to find his rhythm, finishing tied for eighth, and it would not be surprising if he enters the conversation at Portrush this week and remains a factor through Sunday.
10. Tommy Fleetwood
Could this finally be the week for Tommy Fleetwood? He has come agonizingly close not only to a major victory in recent years but also to securing any win outside of the DP World Tour. Fleetwood`s game, characterized by his elite ball-striking, seems perfectly suited for an Open Championship, and this particular event should complement his style. Although he missed the cut at Troon last year, in his two preceding Open appearances, Fleetwood finished within the top 10.
11. Tyrrell Hatton
Tyrrell Hatton arguably deserves a higher spot on this list. His performance at Oakmont was genuinely impressive—a tied-for-fourth finish, marking his best-ever result at a major. It seems he has been steadily moving towards becoming a more significant presence on major championship weekends (he has two top-15 finishes in the last two years at Augusta).
Nevertheless, it`s hard to overlook the fact that Hatton`s temperament—his reactions to poor shots or unlucky breaks—will be rigorously tested this week on a links course like Portrush. Regardless of the outcome, watching him navigate these challenges will certainly be entertaining.
12. Robert MacIntyre
Robert MacIntyre delivered a thoroughly impressive performance at Oakmont, contending with the challenging conditions and Sunday`s delays. He still managed to card a 2-under round, holding the clubhouse lead and nearly forcing a playoff with Spaun. MacIntyre is, to say the least, comfortable in this part of the world and on links courses. Although he missed the cut at the Scottish Open last week, he possesses the game to contend at Portrush this week.
13. Russell Henley
Whenever ball-striking and accuracy, rather than sheer driving distance, are prioritized at a venue, Russell Henley tends to excel, and with good reason. He ranks among the top-10 players in strokes gained and boasts eight top-10 finishes and one victory this season. In majors, Henley has faced challenges, missing the cut at both the Masters and the PGA. At Oakmont, a top-10 finish felt more appropriate, and he now arrives at Portrush following a fifth-place finish at Troon last year.
14. Brooks Koepka
It`s challenging to precisely gauge Brooks Koepka`s current form. While he displayed flashes of his former self at Oakmont and spoke extensively about his swing being lost for a while, he subsequently withdrew from the following LIV event and finished tied for 32nd in its most recent tournament. If conditions at Portrush become exceptionally challenging this week, I could envision Koepka rising to the occasion, but it`s also possible that his game simply isn`t sharp enough at the moment to genuinely contend.
15. Joaquín Niemann
Here`s the situation with Joaquín Niemann: he should arguably be ranked higher on this list. However, despite his continued excellence on the LIV Tour (four wins this season), his performances at golf`s most significant events persistently underwhelm. Even this year, after finally achieving his first top-10 finish at a major during the PGA, Niemann followed it with a missed cut at Oakmont.
16. Justin Thomas
Justin Thomas and the Open Championship don`t seem to have a strong affinity. In eight appearances at this event, Thomas has missed three cuts and has never finished inside the top 10. However, if you`re seeking optimism, Thomas`s best Open finish came at Portrush in 2019. That week, he carded four rounds of even-par or better. He will be hoping to replicate that consistent performance on the Dunluce course this week.
17. Matt Fitzpatrick
It`s difficult to assess Matt Fitzpatrick`s current standing, as he hasn`t secured a win on tour since 2023 and hasn`t truly contended at a major since his 2022 U.S. Open victory. However, he has shown promising form heading into this week, with an eighth-place finish at the Rocket Classic and a fourth-place finish last week at the Scottish Open.
18. Jordan Spieth
Speaking of players whose performance is unpredictable, we have Jordan Spieth. While I find it hard to believe he has a genuine chance to win this week, even with his characteristic erratic play, Spieth has recorded four top-10 finishes this season and has missed only two cuts. Last year, those respective numbers were three and seven, indicating an improvement in consistency.
19. Justin Rose
It should not be overlooked that Justin Rose had a legitimate opportunity to win this tournament last year at Troon, ultimately finishing in a tie for second. Rose has experienced a roller-coaster year thus far, pushing McIlroy to a playoff at Augusta but missing three of his last four cuts, including at the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. Nevertheless, at 44, he has proven he can still contend, and an Open Championship might represent his best chance at securing a second major title.
20. Corey Conners
Much like Henley, Corey Conners` defining strength is his elite ball-striking, a skill set that should translate exceptionally well to a links course like Portrush. It has never quite felt as though Conners has elevated his game sufficiently to truly compete for a major championship (his best finish is a sixth place at the 2022 Masters). However, as demonstrated in 2022 with Brian Harman, the Open frequently produces unexpected winners who simply keep the ball in play all week. Conners could certainly fit that mold.
21. J.J. Spaun
In a manner similar to Wyndham Clark after his 2023 U.S. Open triumph, J.J. Spaun`s career now enters a new phase. Whether he can follow up his Oakmont victory with another competitive performance at a major championship might be a demanding task, especially considering this marks Spaun`s first time competing in an Open.
22. Ben Griffin
How could Ben Griffin not be included? The 29-year-old has been one of the tour`s standout performers this season, securing two victories and accumulating eight top-10 finishes. Griffin hasn`t had much luck at the Open previously—he has missed the cut in both of his prior appearances—but he is playing at an entirely different level this year.
23. Keegan Bradley
Five top-10 finishes, a top-10 result at a major, and a PGA Tour victory—that summarizes Keegan Bradley`s season thus far, and discussions about him potentially serving as a playing captain at the Ryder Cup are already intensifying. While he might not strictly require it, a strong finish at Portrush, or even an improbable victory, would undoubtedly solidify his position.
24. Sepp Straka
In a trend that can only be described as the antithesis of Koepka`s, Sepp Straka has forged a career excelling at PGA Tour events but consistently struggles on golf`s grandest stages. Like Griffin, he also has two wins this season, along with five top-10s, yet he has missed the cut at the Masters, the PGA Championship, and the U.S. Open.
25. Hideki Matsuyama
Hideki Matsuyama`s best performance at an Open Championship came in his debut in 2013, where he finished tied for sixth at Muirfield. Can Matsuyama win? Absolutely. However, it would require a significant surge in form for a player who hasn`t achieved a top-10 finish this year outside of his victory at the Sentry.
First Four Out:
- Cameron Smith
- Patrick Reed
- Adam Scott
- Sam Burns
