The NHL, particularly in the salary cap era, is typically a landscape of constant flux. Rosters evolve, established contenders face turnover, and new powerhouses emerge. This dynamic makes the recent back-to-back Stanley Cup Final appearances by the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers remarkably unique. It marks the first Cup rematch since 2008-09 and only the second since 1983-84. Considering Florida`s 2023 Final appearance as well, the league hasn`t seen so few distinct finalists (just three teams) over a three-year stretch since the mid-1950s, when only the Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens consistently reached the championship round.
While this era of Panthers-Oilers dominance might not last indefinitely – especially with Connor McDavid`s contract status in Edmonton post-2025-26 — current preseason projections still favor Florida as the East`s top contender and Edmonton as the West`s, hinting at another potential rematch. However, history shows that such predictions often face disruptions. The crucial question then becomes: if these two titans don`t meet again, which teams are best positioned to seize the opportunity and compete for the Stanley Cup?
Let`s explore the most probable challengers from both conferences, alongside a few dark horse candidates ready to make a significant impact should the reigning finalists falter.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Carolina Hurricanes
Chances to make Final: +360 | Chances to Win Cup: +800
Why they haven`t broken through yet: The Hurricanes` perennial playoff presence—seven consecutive postseasons—has yet to yield a Stanley Cup Final berth. Their 44 playoff victories in this span set a new record for most wins without reaching the final, surpassing Toronto`s previous mark from 1998-2004. Carolina reached the Eastern Conference finals twice in the last three seasons but struggled offensively in a 2023 sweep by Florida and faced goaltending challenges against the Panthers (particularly Sam Bennett) in 2025.
Why 2025-26 could be different: Carolina will rely on Pyotr Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen in net, prompting questions about improved performance after their .823 save percentage in the 2025 Eastern Conference finals. Offensively, new forward Nikolaj Ehlers is expected to boost their scoring. On defense, the addition of K`Andre Miller and the potential of prospect Alexander Nikishin could further bolster an already strong blue line, especially if Miller regains his 2022-23 form. The Hurricanes hope their established puck-possession system can finally overcome a largely unchanged Florida core.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Chances to make Final: +650 | Chances to Win Cup: +1400
Why they haven`t broken through recently: The Lightning are no strangers to success, with Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021 and another Final appearance in 2022. After a perceived decline, Tampa Bay bounced back in 2024-25, achieving their best goal differential (+0.91) since 2018-19. However, this regular-season success didn`t translate into a deep playoff run, as they were eliminated in the first round by Florida in five games for the second consecutive year, a stark contrast to their past dominance in the rivalry.
Why 2025-26 could be different: Tampa Bay’s continued strength lies in its exceptional core talent, suggesting they remain serious Cup contenders. The offseason saw minimal significant departures, with defenseman Nick Perbix being the only notable loss, and few major additions. While the team was the NHL’s fifth oldest in 2024-25, key players like Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Victor Hedman, and Jake Guentzel still possess elite skills. Until they show signs of slowing, this veteran squad has the potential to match up against Florida, despite recent playoff outcomes.
New Jersey Devils
Chances to make Final: +850 | Chances to Win Cup: +1600
Why they haven`t broken through yet: The Devils` performance heavily hinges on Jack Hughes` health. In 2022-23, when Hughes played over 62 games, New Jersey ranked fourth in the league for goals per game. With him missing 20 games in each of the subsequent two seasons, their offensive ranking dropped to 12th in 2023-24 and then 20th last season. This offensive dip contributed to them missing the playoffs in 2023-24 (leading to coach Lindy Ruff`s dismissal) and a disappointing first-round exit against Carolina in five games last year, a sharp decline from their promising third-best goal differential and third-youngest roster status in 2022-23.
Why 2025-26 could be different: Jack Hughes` anticipated return to full health for the 2025-26 season has the Devils optimistic about regaining their previous form. With Hughes in the lineup over the last two seasons, New Jersey averaged 3.13 goals per game, compared to 2.93 without him—a difference equivalent to moving from 12th to 21st in the league. To further bolster their scoring, the Devils acquired Evgenii Dadonov and are eyeing Russian winger Arseny Gritsyuk as a potential impact player. If they can resolve contract discussions with Luke Hughes, New Jersey could mount a strong challenge in the East, though they must find a way to overcome Carolina, who eliminated them in both 2023 and 2025.
Worth a Flier?
Ottawa Senators
Chances to make Final: +1200 | Chances to Win Cup: +3500
After a seven-year playoff drought, Ottawa broke through in 2024-25, propelled by a youthful core including Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson, and Shane Pinto, all 25 or younger. Though still developing, this core, reinforced by young defenseman Jordan Spence, aims to build on last season`s 19-point improvement in the standings.
Montreal Canadiens
Chances to make Final: +2800 | Chances to Win Cup: +5000
The Canadiens have shown steady progress, improving their goal differential for three consecutive seasons and securing their first playoff spot since 2021. Nick Suzuki`s 89 points were a franchise high in nearly three decades, and Cole Caufield`s 37 goals were the most by a Montreal player his age since 1989-90. With this talented young duo leading an upgraded roster, featuring defenseman Noah Dobson and forward Zack Bolduc, Montreal appears poised for a significant breakthrough.
The Rest of the East
- Toronto Maple Leafs (+1000 to make Stanley Cup Final)
- Washington Capitals (+1400)
- New York Rangers (+1600)
- Boston Bruins (+3300)
- Columbus Blue Jackets (+3300)
- Detroit Red Wings (+3300)
- Philadelphia Flyers (+3300)
- New York Islanders (+4000)
- Buffalo Sabres (+6000)
- Pittsburgh Penguins (+6000)
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Colorado Avalanche
Chances to make Final: +450 | Chances to Win Cup: +800
Why they haven`t broken through recently: Following their 2022 Stanley Cup victory, which showcased one of hockey`s strongest teams and hinted at a new dynasty, the Avalanche encountered the challenges typical of the salary cap era. Injuries (Gabriel Landeskog) and key departures (Darcy Kuemper, Mikko Rantanen, Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky) led to attrition. While Colorado remains a top team, their goal differential has steadily declined over the past four seasons.
Why 2025-26 could be different: Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar continue to perform at an elite level, combining for 438 points over the last two seasons—the highest consecutive two-year total for any forward/defenseman duo in over three decades. This formidable core, strengthened by the return of trade deadline acquisition Brock Nelson and veteran additions Brent Burns and Victor Olofsson, suggests the Avalanche could make another deep run, despite consecutive playoff exits against the Dallas Stars.
Vegas Golden Knights
Chances to make Final: +450 | Chances to Win Cup: +850
Why they haven`t broken through recently: The Golden Knights` regular-season performance last year (+0.68 goal differential per game) was statistically stronger than their 2023 Cup-winning season (+0.52). However, their once-potent playoff offense has faltered, plummeting from 4.00 goals per game during their Cup run to just 2.44 since, culminating in back-to-back shutout losses to Edmonton in the second round last spring. Despite maintaining talent and depth, recent playoff results haven`t aligned with their underlying strength.
Why 2025-26 could be different: Vegas`s primary reason for optimism is the significant offseason acquisition of star winger Mitch Marner in a late June sign-and-trade with Toronto. Marner, who has averaged 29 adjusted goals, 65 adjusted assists, and 94 adjusted points per season since 2020-21, is one of the league`s most dangerous offensive creators. While new players often need time to adapt, Marner will integrate into a talented roster alongside Jack Eichel, forming a potentially formidable playoff duo, and his past playoff struggles are often overstated.
Dallas Stars
Chances to make Final: +475 | Chances to Win Cup: +1000
Why they haven`t broken through yet: Like Carolina, the Stars have consistently fallen short of the Stanley Cup Final. With 29 playoff wins over the last three seasons—the most by a team in that span without reaching the Final—Dallas has been halted by back-to-back losses to Edmonton in the conference finals. While some historically strong franchises eventually break through after similar near-misses, the lingering question for the Stars is whether this current roster can take that decisive final step.
Why 2025-26 could be different: The Stars will benefit from having Mikko Rantanen for a full season, following his remarkable year where he became the only player in NHL history to suit up for three different teams (Avalanche, Hurricanes, Stars) in a single campaign. Offseason changes also included firing coach Pete DeBoer and bringing back former bench boss Glen Gulutzan, alongside a significant net loss in goals above replacement. This extensive shakeup, though seemingly negative, could be the catalyst for a shift in identity, much like the Panthers experienced, helping the team finally overcome its previous hurdles.
Worth a Flier?
Los Angeles Kings
Chances to make Final: +1000 | Chances to Win Cup: +2000
It may seem bold to consider the Kings as a team to dethrone the Oilers, given their record of four consecutive postseason losses to Edmonton—making them only the fourth team across major men`s leagues to suffer such a streak against a single opponent without a prior head-to-head win. However, Los Angeles remains an intriguing contender due to its blend of youth and veteran experience. Notably, their offseason acquisitions included Corey Perry, a player whose teams have reached the Cup Final in five of the last six seasons.
Utah Mammoth
Chances to make Final: +2000 | Chances to Win Cup: +4000
It`s easy to be optimistic about the Mammoth as a rising Western Conference contender. Last season, they boasted the league`s seventh-youngest roster, featuring talents like Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev, Logan Cooley, and Dylan Guenther, all 26 or under. The team has also consistently improved its goal differential for three straight seasons. Building on this foundation, Utah acquired skilled forward JJ Peterka and signed veteran defenseman Nate Schmidt and forward Brandon Tanev this offseason, marking a net gain in talent. Despite the franchise`s sparse playoff history since 2012 (only 2020, dating back to its Arizona days), brighter days are certainly on the horizon for Utah.
The Rest of the West
- Winnipeg Jets (+1200 to make Stanley Cup Final)
- Minnesota Wild (+1700)
- St. Louis Blues (+2200)
- Vancouver Canucks (+3000)
- Nashville Predators (+3300)
- Calgary Flames (+4000)
- Anaheim Ducks (+5000)
- Seattle Kraken (+10000)
- Chicago Blackhawks (+15000)
- San Jose Sharks (+30000)
