The playing season has concluded for the top draft-eligible prospects. A few players within the top 10 recently participated in the Memorial Cup, leaving a strong final impression on scouts and team executives. This week marks the NHL Draft Combine in Buffalo, New York, where players will undergo physical testing and thorough interviews with interested teams. The combine provides teams with an opportunity to ask unconventional questions, understand player personalities, and in some cases, grasp the significance of past injuries.
There`s potential for shifts in the draft board as combine test results can influence analytical model outputs. Furthermore, this current ranking weighs scouting evaluations at 40% of the total assessment. The definitive final ranking, scheduled for release on June 23, will incorporate scouting, statistical projections, off-ice assessments, and industry intelligence to varying degrees, which may cause players to move up or down the list.
This ranking is structured based on five key components:
-
The Rank: This is derived from attributed value considering projection, projection confidence, and scouting.
-
The NHL Projection: Weighing the projection formula at 70% and scouting at 30%, this represents the most probable outcome for the player. The final rankings will also include the player`s potential NHL ceiling.
-
The NHL Floor: Using the same formula, this indicates the least favorable outcome with a probability above 10%. For example, if a player has an 11% chance of becoming a fourth-line winger or No. 7 defenseman, that is considered their floor. Some players may have a floor outside the NHL, such as the AHL or KHL.
-
Projection Confidence: Based solely on the projection formula, this has two aspects: confidence and volatility. Confidence has four levels (High, Fair, Medium, Low) indicating the model`s certainty that the player will reach their NHL projection (playing 200 or more NHL games). High is above 80%, Fair is 60-79%, Medium is 35-59%, and Low is below 35%. Confidence level impacts the player`s value and rank. Volatility has four categories (Low, Slight, Medium, High) reflecting the range of potential career outcomes. Low volatility means a narrow range (e.g., No. 1 to top-pair defenseman), while High volatility indicates a wide range of possibilities, potentially influenced by factors like league context, scoring changes, injuries, or significant development shifts. `Raw` players often show high volatility.
-
Strengths: These are the player`s standout abilities and skills.
The term `Boom or Bust` is a comprehensive descriptor combining confidence and volatility. It implies the player will either fulfill their NHL projection or is unlikely to play a significant number of NHL games (under 200). The difference between a low-confidence/high-volatility projection and a `boom-or-bust` label often points to factors like injuries affecting projection reliability due to limited data, or the player competing in a league without a strong history of producing successful NHL players.
An additional factor considered is the `Russian factor,` acknowledging that skilled Russian players who don`t reach their NHL potential may be more likely to return to play in Russia.
Here is how the top 64 prospects are ranked according to this model:
1. Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- No. 1 defenseman
- NHL Floor:
- Top-pair defenseman
- Projection Confidence:
- High confidence, low volatility
- Strengths:
- Mobility, puck moving, creativity, rush activation
2. Michael Misa, F, Saginaw (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Elite No. 1 center
- NHL Floor:
- Second-line winger
- Projection Confidence:
- High confidence, slight volatility
- Strengths:
- Offensive instincts, explosiveness, transition offense, two-way play
3. James Hagens, F, Boston College (NCAA)
- NHL Projection:
- First-line center
- NHL Floor:
- Second-line center
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, slight volatility
- Strengths:
- Transition play, speed, hockey sense, puck handling
4. Porter Martone, F, Brampton (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Second-line power forward
- NHL Floor:
- Middle-six winger
- Projection Confidence:
- High confidence, slight volatility
- Strengths:
- Playmaking, scoring, hockey sense, size
5. Caleb Desnoyers, F, Moncton (QMJHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Top-six, two-way center
- NHL Floor:
- Third-line checking center
- Projection Confidence:
- High confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Two-way play, quick hands, playmaking, efficient puck play
6. Anton Frondell, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
- NHL Projection:
- Second-line center
- NHL Floor:
- Third-line scoring winger
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Versatility, two-way play, elite release, forechecking
7. Roger McQueen, F, Brandon (WHL)
- NHL Projection:
- First-line scoring center
- NHL Floor:
- Injury-shortened career
- Projection Confidence:
- Low confidence, high volatility
- Strengths:
- Speed, puck handling, quick release, size
8. Viktor Eklund, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
- NHL Projection:
- Top-six scoring forward
- NHL Floor:
- Middle-six scoring forward
- Projection Confidence:
- High confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Motor, transition offense, two-way play, off-puck play, hard skill
9. Jake O`Brien, F, Brantford (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Top-six playmaking center
- NHL Floor:
- Middle-six scoring winger
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Playmaking, creativity, hockey sense
10. Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Top-four defenseman
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-pair defenseman
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Physicality, transition defense, mobility, puck moving
11. Brady Martin, F, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Second-line scoring forward
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-six power forward
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, high volatility
- Strengths:
- Motor, wall play, physicality, hard skill, competitiveness
12. Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Top-four shutdown defenseman
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-pair transition defenseman
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, slight volatility
- Strengths:
- Size, stick positioning and use, hockey sense
13. Carter Bear, F, Everett (WHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Second-line versatile forward
- NHL Floor:
- Third-line checker
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Playmaking, versatility, two-way play, motor
14. Justin Carbonneau, F, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Second-line scoring forward
- NHL Floor:
- Middle-six forward
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Powerful stride, playmaking, puck handling
15. Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin (NCAA)
- NHL Projection:
- Second-pair transition defenseman
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-pair defenseman
- Projection Confidence:
- High confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Gap control, mobility, transition play
16. Lynden Lakovic, F, Moose Jaw (WHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Middle-six scoring winger
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-six forward
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, high volatility
- Strengths:
- Speed, finishing ability, hands, size
17. Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Second-pair defenseman
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-pair physical defenseman
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Physicality, competitiveness, aggression, strength
18. Braeden Cootes, F, Seattle (WHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Middle-six two-way center
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-six checking winger
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Two-way play, speed, anticipation, forechecking
19. Cameron Schmidt, F, Vancouver (WHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Second-line scoring winger
- NHL Floor:
- AHL player
- Projection Confidence:
- Boom or bust
- Strengths:
- Speed, puck handling, offensive instincts, finishing ability
20. Cole Reschny, F, Victoria (WHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Middle-six two-way center
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-six forward
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Two-way play, anticipation, quick hands, competitiveness
21. Cameron Reid, D, Kitchener (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Top-four transition defenseman
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-pair defensive defenseman
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, high volatility
- Strengths:
- Skating, transition play, hockey sense
22. Cullen Potter, F, Arizona State (NCAA)
- NHL Projection:
- Top-six forward
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-six checking winger
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, high volatility
- Strengths:
- Speed, agility, offensive play driving, elite release
23. Benjamin Kindel, F, Calgary (WHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Middle-six two-way winger
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-six checking winger
- Projection Confidence:
- High confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Hockey sense, transition, two-way play
24. Malcolm Spence, F, Erie (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Third-line two-way winger
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-six winger
- Projection Confidence:
- High confidence, slight volatility
- Strengths:
- High-end motor, two-way play, tenacity
25. Joshua Ravensbergen, G, Prince George (WHL)
- NHL Projection:
- No. 1 starting goaltender
- NHL Floor:
- 1B tandem goaltender
- Projection Confidence:
- High confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Anticipation, crisp movements, competitiveness, lateral agility
26. Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Second-pair defenseman
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-pair physical defenseman
- Projection Confidence:
- High confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Transition defense, in-zone defensive play, size, mobility
27. Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston University (NCAA)
- NHL Projection:
- Second-pair two-way defenseman
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-pair offensive specialist
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, high volatility
- Strengths:
- Skating, stick play, transition play, slap shot
28. Jack Murtagh, F, USNTDP (USHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Third-line power forward
- NHL Floor:
- Fourth-line forward
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, slight volatility
- Strengths:
- Motor, shooting, hard skill, straight-line speed
29. Jack Nesbitt, F, Windsor (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Middle-six two-way center
- NHL Floor:
- Fourth-line defensive center
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Strength, size, competitiveness, two-way play
30. Bill Zonnon, F, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Third-line two-way forward
- NHL Floor:
- AHL player
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- High-end motor, raw playmaking, competitiveness, puck battles
31. William Moore, F, USNTDP (USHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Third-line forward
- NHL Floor:
- NHL depth player
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Puck protection, skating, offensive instincts, puck skill
32. Ryker Lee, F, Madison (USHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Middle-six playmaker
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-six scoring depth
- Projection Confidence:
- Boom or bust
- Strengths:
- Hockey sense, creativity, puck handling, one-timer
33. Nathan Behm, F, Kamploops (WHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Middle-six scoring forward
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-six scoring depth
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Playmaking, shooting, creativity
34. Milton Gastrin, F, Modo (J20 Nationell)
- NHL Projection:
- Third-line two-way center
- NHL Floor:
- Fourth-line center
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, low volatility
- Strengths:
- Defensive play, two-way instincts, motor
35. Shane Vansaghi, F, Michigan State (NCAA)
- NHL Projection:
- Third-line power forward
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-six checking forward
- Projection Confidence:
- High confidence, slight volatility
- Strengths:
- Physicality, strength, competitiveness, puck skill
36. Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, F, Lulea (J20 Nationell)
- NHL Projection:
- Middle-six scoring forward
- NHL Floor:
- Third-line scoring depth
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Playmaking, finishing ability, offensive instincts
37. Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Platoon starting goaltender
- NHL Floor:
- High-end NHL backup
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Positioning, controlled movements, patience in save selection
38. Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- No. 4/5 transition defender
- NHL Floor:
- AHL scoring defenseman
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, high volatility
- Strengths:
- Puck moving, gap control, creativity
39. Cole McKinney, F, USNTDP (USHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Third-line, two-way center
- NHL Floor:
- Fourth-line defensive center
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, slight volatility
- Strengths:
- Two-way play, penalty killing, competitiveness, finishing ability
40. Eric Nilson, F, Orebro (J20 Nationell)
- NHL Projection:
- Bottom-six checking center
- NHL Floor:
- AHL top-six center
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Two-way play, forechecking, competitiveness, defensive instincts
41. Vaclav Nestrasil, F, Muskegon (USHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Top-six power forward
- NHL Floor:
- Fourth-line physical winger
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, high volatility
- Strengths:
- Size, motor, two-way play, puck skill
42. Benjamin Kevan, F, Des Moines (USHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Middle-six two-way winger
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-six speedster
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, high volatility
- Strengths:
- Speed, puck handling, transition offense
43. Ivan Ryabkin, F, Muskegon (USHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Middle-six power forward
- NHL Floor:
- AHL player
- Projection Confidence:
- Boom or bust
- Strengths:
- Quick release, creativity, physicality
44. Daniil Prokhorov, F, St. Petersburg (MHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Middle-six power forward
- NHL Floor:
- KHL player
- Projection Confidence:
- Boom or bust
- Strengths:
- Size, strength, physicality, heavy shot
45. Carter Amico, D, USNTDP (USHL)
- NHL Projection:
- No. 4/5 transition defenseman
- NHL Floor:
- No. 7 defenseman
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Mobility, transition defense, physicality, size
46. Max Psenicka, D, Portland (WHL)
- NHL Projection:
- No. 4/5 two-way defenseman
- NHL Floor:
- No. 7 defenseman
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Instincts, mobility, gap control, puck moving
47. Luca Romano, F, Kitchener (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Middle-six, two-way center
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-six checking speedster
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Speed, transition play, motor
48. Alexander Zharovsky, F, Ufa (MHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Middle-six scoring winger
- NHL Floor:
- KHL player
- Projection Confidence:
- Boom or bust
- Strengths:
- Puck handling, instincts, creativity
49. Kurban Limatov, D, Moscow (MHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Second-pair, two-way defenseman
- NHL Floor:
- KHL player
- Projection Confidence:
- Boom or bust
- Strengths:
- Skating, mobility, aggressiveness, physicality
50. Mason West, F, Edina (USHS)
- NHL Projection:
- Middle-six physical forward
- NHL Floor:
- Fourth-line physical forward
- Projection Confidence:
- Low confidence, high volatility
- Strengths:
- Strength, physicality, size, mobility
51. Kristian Epperson, F, Saginaw (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Third-line scoring winger
- NHL Floor:
- AHL top-six forward
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, high volatility
- Strengths:
- Two-way play, playmaking, hockey sense
52. Matthew Gard, F, Red Deer (WHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Bottom-six checking center
- NHL Floor:
- Fourth-line physical center
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, low volatility
- Strengths:
- Strength, size, defensive play, motor
53. William Horcoff, F, Michigan (NCAA)
- NHL Projection:
- Third-line two-way center
- NHL Floor:
- Fourth-line physical presence
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, slight volatility
- Strengths:
- Defensive play, strength, size, wall play
54. Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln (USHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Second-pair shutdown defenseman
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-pair physical defenseman
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, slight volatility
- Strengths:
- Defensive play, puck retrievals, motor
55. Peyton Kettles, D, Swift Current (WHL)
- NHL Projection:
- No. 4/5 shutdown defenseman
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-pair defenseman
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, low volatility
- Strengths:
- Defensive play, size, physicality
56. Hayden Paupanekis, F, Kelowna (WHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Bottom-six defensive center
- NHL Floor:
- Fourth-line center
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Competitiveness, size, defensive play
57. David Bedkowski, D, Owen Sound (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Bottom-pair shutdown defenseman
- NHL Floor:
- No. 7 physical defenseman
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, slight volatility
- Strengths:
- Physicality, size, strong stick, penalty killing
58. Ethan Czata, F, Niagara (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Bottom-six checking center
- NHL Floor:
- AHL depth
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, slight volatility
- Strengths:
- Penalty killing, physicality, hard skill
59. Haoxi `Simon` Wang, D, Oshawa (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Second-pair two-way defenseman
- NHL Floor:
- AHL player
- Projection Confidence:
- Low confidence, high volatility
- Strengths:
- Skating, mobility, size, transition defense
60. Theo Stockselius, F, Djurgardens (J20 Nationell)
- NHL Projection:
- Third-line two-way forward
- NHL Floor:
- AHL depth
- Projection Confidence:
- Low confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Hockey sense, hard skill, playmaking
61. Eddie Genborg, F, Linkoping (SHL)
- NHL Projection:
- Bottom-six checking winger
- NHL Floor:
- Fourth-line physical winger
- Projection Confidence:
- Medium confidence, slight volatility
- Strengths:
- Physicality, two-way play, motor
62. Charlie Trethewey, D, USNTDP (USHL)
- NHL Projection:
- No. 4/5 two-way defenseman
- NHL Floor:
- Bottom-pair defenseman
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Defensive play, physicality, heavy shot, skating
63. Alexei Medvedev, G, London (OHL)
- NHL Projection:
- 1B NHL goaltender
- NHL Floor:
- Reliable NHL backup
- Projection Confidence:
- Fair confidence, medium volatility
- Strengths:
- Positioning, competitiveness, anticipation, athleticism
64. L.J. Mooney, F, USNTDP (USA)
- NHL Projection:
- Middle-six two-way scoring depth
- NHL Floor:
- AHL top-six scoring forward
- Projection Confidence:
- Boom or bust
- Strengths:
- Speed, puck handling, motor
