The second major golf championship of 2025, the PGA Championship, is set to take place from Thursday to Sunday at Quail Hollow Club.
Which players do our golf experts predict will win? Where do our betting analysts see value? We delve into the favorites and provide extensive analysis leading up to the 2025 PGA Championship.
Expert Predictions
Rory McIlroy: I believe in players who hit their stride, and Rory is currently in that zone. After securing the career Grand Slam, he returns to a venue where he has won four times – it`s essentially his domain. He is set to win again.
Justin Thomas: Call it recent form bias, but JT is well-positioned to win the PGA Championship for a third time. Having ended his nearly three-year winless streak with a playoff victory in April and following a runner-up finish at the Truist Championship, his confidence (and putting) is high enough to make a strong challenge at Quail Hollow, where he lifted the Wanamaker Trophy in 2017.
Scottie Scheffler: How often will people underestimate the World #1? Some mistake his calm demeanor for a lack of competitive fire, but his inner drive is intense and he will be determined. The field will be reminded of his capabilities once again.
Justin Thomas: Something clearly clicked for Thomas in October 2024. He finished tied for 2nd at the Zozo Championship and has since returned to elite form. He`s back at the site of his first PGA Championship victory, and he will win again.
Rory McIlroy: Finally winning the Masters relieved significant pressure from his shoulders. He may now be playing his most relaxed golf in nearly a decade, and a free-swinging Rory is a formidable challenge for the rest of the field. Plus, with four prior wins at Quail Hollow, he dominates that course. Is everyone ready for Grand Slam discussions?
Rory McIlroy: Sometimes the most obvious pick is the correct one. He achieved the Masters/career Grand Slam and has been the world`s best golfer in 2025. Add in a course he has won at four times that favors long hitters, and he`s the clear choice.
Shane Lowry: He is in good form, drives the ball very well, and hits excellent iron shots.
Bryson DeChambeau: If the winner needs driving distance, strong long-iron play, and consistent putting, then Bryson DeChambeau is my pick. He will want to prove that his less-than-ideal final round at the Masters was an anomaly, and he is fresh off a victory in the LIV Golf League in Korea. He finished in the top six in four of the last five majors, including second place at the 2024 PGA Championship. He will add the Wanamaker Trophy to his two U.S. Open titles.
Rory McIlroy: He comes into the PGA Championship having already won this year`s two most significant events – the Players Championship and the Masters Tournament. Fourteen years of persistent questions and pressure have been lifted. He has confidence in all aspects of his game and with every club. This brings mental, emotional, and physical freedom.
And now he returns to Quail Hollow, a venue where he holds the lowest scoring average on the PGA Tour among players with at least 20 rounds. Oh, and he has won at Quail Hollow four times.
Rory McIlroy: Rory McIlroy over Scottie Scheffler by one stroke. Always support the Masters champion at the PGA to fuel Grand Slam discussion this year.
Rory McIlroy: Given Rory`s current performance and historical results at Quail Hollow, picking him as the winner feels almost too obvious, but I cannot bring myself to pick anyone else. Perhaps this is influenced by recent events – he just demonstrated how challenging it is to win even one major, let alone two consecutively – however, everything about this week`s setup favors the player who has undeniably been the world`s best golfer this year.
Bryson DeChambeau: Quail Hollow is a long course, as they say. This week, it is also an awfully wet golf course. The advantage of DeChambeau`s length will be magnified this week, and I believe he wins.
Betting Analysis
Tyler Fulghum, ESPN BET Live host
Xander Schauffele (+2000). It`s difficult not to choose McIlroy or Scheffler, but the odds of +500 or lower for both make them expensive bets. If considering players beyond the top two favorites, I`d look at Schauffele. He possesses the disciplined, all-around game needed to succeed here, where the course is long and the field is strong.
David Gordon, ESPN Research
Shane Lowry (+4500). Lowry could be considered among the top of the second tier of players, but his betting odds suggest otherwise. If neither Rory nor Xander wins, I`ll back the player currently third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, who also has two top-six finishes in the last four PGA Championships.
Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst
Rory McIlroy (+475). I know he just won the Masters, but Quail Hollow is different; it`s his domain. The course suits his strengths: powerful drives and high, accurate long irons, which is why McIlroy has won here four times. He is intimately familiar with the layout, and his game is perfectly suited for it. The odds are low, but when McIlroy plays at Quail Hollow, he`s defending his territory.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +450 |
| Rory McIlroy | +475 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +775 |
Tyler Fulghum
Patrick Reed (+550). Apart from Bryson DeChambeau, LIV golfers tend to be less prominent in discussions. This can create value for these players in majors. Patrick Reed is another LIV golfer who has performed relatively well in majors since joining LIV. He finished third at the Masters in April and tied for second when the PGA Championship was last held at Quail Hollow in 2017.
David Gordon
Bryson DeChambeau (+140). Since 2020, DeChambeau has more top-five finishes (three) in PGA Championships than any other player. His six top-five major finishes since 2020 occurred at different courses, demonstrating his ability to contend on various layouts. Driving distance combined with shorter rough has benefited recent winners at Quail Hollow. While he`s a strong contender for a top-five finish, opting for a top-10 bet offers more security.
Pamela Maldonado
Jon Rahm (+190). Rahm drives the ball long, is accurate with his long irons, and excels on challenging courses. Quail Hollow is suited for players who can power through long par 4s and handle the pressure of the closing stretch. Even when not at his best, Rahm`s baseline performance can exceed the peak performance of many others. Even with a cold putter, he remains a threat because his approach shots create numerous birdie opportunities.
Tyler Fulghum
McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200). It`s challenging to find appealing bets with positive odds on McIlroy, but this one is worth taking. McIlroy doesn`t always start quickly in majors, but he dominates this particular course. Following his Masters victory, he could start strong, playing freely and confidently here.
David Gordon
McIlroy over Scheffler: tournament matchup (-110). Pam and Tyler have already made the case for McIlroy effectively. While it seems difficult to bet against a player who just matched the PGA Tour`s 72-hole scoring record in his last event, McIlroy has advantages in course familiarity, distance, and putting.
Pamela Maldonado
McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200). The major hurdle is cleared; he completed the career Grand Slam. McIlroy arrives at Quail Hollow grounded, composed, and in control. Golf requires both mental strength and skill, and he possesses both clarity and confidence. If he plays his natural game without forcing anything, combined with his comfort on the course, McIlroy`s focus will be sharp and his play consistent.
Tyler Fulghum
Tony Finau (+12500). Finau`s current form doesn`t strongly indicate he`ll contend, except for his significant driving distance. However, the odds are very appealing for a player of Finau`s caliber, and the PGA Championship, more than the other three majors, is known for producing surprise first-time major winners.
David Gordon
Denny McCarthy (+17500). He tied for sixth at Quail Hollow last year and tied for eighth the year before. He is one of only three players with eight or more rounds of par or better at this course over the last two years (the others being Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood). McCarthy lacks distance off the tee, which is a concern, but he clearly compensates for this when playing at Quail Hollow. His best finish this season was a tie for fifth at Torrey Pines, one of the longest courses on the PGA Tour. I`ll take a chance that his excellent putting continues.
Pamela Maldonado
Keith Mitchell (+11000). His recent performance is noteworthy, with consistent top-20 finishes, including a tie for seventh last week. His ball striking is solid, and he`s shown significant improvements in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He has two previous top-10 finishes at Quail Hollow. Betting +320 for a top-20 finish seems reasonable, with a small wager at +11000 for a long shot.
David Gordon
Corey Conners to finish as low Canadian (+165). Conners has been the low Canadian in four of the last five majors (missing only last year`s Open Championship) and in six of the last eight majors overall. He was the low Canadian in both PGA Championships within that period. His five top-10 finishes this season are surpassed only by Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. He also finished tied for 13th and tied for eighth in the last two years at Quail Hollow.
Pamela Maldonado
Justin Thomas (-120) vs. Xander Schauffele. Thomas has a proven ability to win here. While Schauffele has the potential to contend, his approach play doesn`t quite match up. Thomas`s iron game is stronger, providing an advantage on a course where iron accuracy is key. In a comparison of ball striking, Justin Thomas`s consistency from tee to green gives him the edge.
