The sound of the Champions League anthem could very well be heard echoing around the City Ground next season, a fitting reward for an exceptional campaign.
Nottingham Forest finds themselves on the cusp of securing a top-five finish in the Premier League, an outcome few would have predicted.
Nuno Espirito Santo has transformed Forest from relegation candidates to Champions League hopefuls.
Under Nuno Espirito Santo, the team that narrowly avoided relegation by just six points last season, and was widely tipped for another survival battle this term, has dramatically exceeded expectations.
They have surprisingly positioned themselves as the primary challengers to powerhouses like Liverpool and Arsenal at the top end of the table.
Forest boasts a distinctive tactical identity, featuring some of the league`s most overlooked talents. Let`s examine how they`ve managed to astonish everyone this year.
Unconventional Statistics
A look at the data reveals Forest`s efficiency and defensive strength.
Centre-backs Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo have been key to their success.
In attack, they boast the fourth-best shot conversion rate despite ranking only 14th in total shots. This is achieved with the lowest average possession figure in the league.
Defensively, only Liverpool and Arsenal have conceded fewer goals. Yet, Forest achieves this without high pressing; they rank 18th for winning the ball back in the opponent`s final third.
So, how do they maintain such a solid defense? It largely comes down to a highly effective `parking the bus` strategy.
The central defensive pairing of Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo are exceptional `box defenders`, while the full-backs, typically Neco Williams and Ola Aina, are disciplined and rarely venture forward.
Nuno essentially divides his team, with six players focused on defense and four on attack.
When not in possession, they adopt a narrow 4-4-2 shape, positioning themselves deep near their own penalty area, making it extremely difficult for opponents to play through the middle.
They are meticulously coached in blocking passing lanes, setting pressing traps, and directing the opposition wide.
Crucially, Forest trusts their ability to defend crosses, relying on their aerially dominant centre-backs and an in-form goalkeeper like Matz Sels.
Forest are so compact and there is no way through for opponents.
The gaps between their lines are tight and set traps and block passing lanes.
Opponents often enjoy significant possession but find themselves unable to penetrate this organized block – the true magic of their formation.
The Brilliance of Murillo
The 22-year-old Brazilian defender, Murillo, is performing at a level comparable to Ruben Dias or Virgil van Dijk – he has been simply outstanding.
His ability to deny space to opposing strikers is remarkable, and he serves as a key leader for the back four.
The team pulls in towards Murillo when a cross comes in.
Murillo employs a clever tactic: when the ball is on one side of the pitch, he signals the two nearest Forest players to tuck in closer to him while he specifically marks the opposition`s central striker.
As opponents prepare to cross, Murillo takes two steps back, and the entire defensive line adjusts accordingly. It`s like the synchronized dropping of the defensive line we see from players signalling before a free-kick, but Murillo executes it seamlessly in open play. It`s genuinely impressive.
He also expertly disrupts strikers` positioning before the ball arrives with subtle nudges and physical presence.
In Forest`s 2-1 victory over Tottenham, Spurs attempted 48 crosses, scoring only with their final one, largely thanks to Murillo making it a difficult night for Richarlison.
Murillo and Milenkovic are physical and aerially dominant.
Go Forward, Elanga
In the match against Spurs, Anthony Elanga operated effectively as a second striker within the 4-4-2 defensive shape, always poised to exploit his explosive pace on the counter-attack.
Elliot Anderson and Morgan Gibbs-White tucked in defensively to counteract the inverted full-back formations commonly used by many teams, again denying opponents space in dangerous areas.
Chris Wood acts as the primary target man, while Elanga is given freedom to roam around him, creating problems wherever he finds space.
The former Manchester United player drifts into the wide areas vacated by attacking full-backs, positioning himself to receive the ball and initiate rapid breaks.
Elanga drifts out wide and starts counter-attacks.
During transitions from defense to attack, passes are consistently aimed towards Elanga to launch the counter-attack.
The team`s movement is designed to disrupt the opponent`s defensive structure, facilitating quick breaks. Wood drops deep to hold up the ball, with other players making runs beyond him. This can cause defensive lines to become disorganized and “jagged”, making it harder for opponents to play the offside trap, allowing Elanga to sprint forward without hesitation.
The Enduring Threat of Wood
One might expect Chris Wood`s impressive goal-scoring run to eventually slow down, but it continues unabated.
The seasoned striker remains remarkably clinical, currently one of the most effective forwards in the league. His tally of 19 goals this season significantly exceeds his expected goals (xG) figure by eight (with only three coming from penalties).
Building on his tactic of dropping deep, when Forest regains possession, particularly from a clearance, he positions himself level with the opponent`s midfield, flanked by wide players.
Wood likes to drop deep and win flick-ons after a clearance to start counter-attacks.
Opposing centre-backs are reluctant to leave their positions and be drawn far out, fearing the disorganization this causes in their backline. This allows Wood to effectively win aerial duels and flick the ball on for his pacy teammates.
Forest is also comfortable playing long balls directly from goal-kicks towards Wood`s head, with teammates positioned around him to collect any second balls.
It`s a classic centre-forward approach, and it`s proving incredibly successful for Forest.
Anderson`s Crucial Role
Elliot Anderson is arguably one of the Premier League`s most undervalued players.
His defensive awareness and tactical positioning are excellent and absolutely vital to Nuno`s system.
Anderson`s versatility is key; he can operate on the left of a midfield three, as a number six, part of a double pivot, or further forward in attack.
The energetic Anderson consistently understands where to provide defensive support and cover when players like Elanga, Gibbs-White, and Callum Hudson-Odoi push forward.
This adaptability is precisely what Nuno requires in a system built on the principle of never being defensively exposed or outnumbered.
