Every gambler enjoys winning on high-risk bets. It brings a sense of validation when your intuition, even if it contradicts popular opinion, proves to be correct. Plus, the payout can be quite substantial.
What constitutes a “long shot”? On betting platforms, odds for some individual players can go as high as 500 to 1. Often, such bets narrowly miss their mark, losing to favorites. However, sometimes even the most improbable predictions come true.
The purpose of this article is not to suggest specific bets, but rather to demonstrate a thought process that can help you identify valuable long-term bets yourself before the start of the 2025-26 season. This is not a guide for betting on particular players, but rather a mental exercise in finding advantageous opportunities.
Stanley Cup Winner 2025-26
St. Louis Blues
Odds: 50-1
The Blues once before pulled off a miracle, transforming from a mid-season underdog to a Stanley Cup champion in 2019. They possess all the ingredients for playoff success: a strong coaching staff, reliable goaltending for crucial games, forward depth, and a sturdy defensive line. This is the kind of mix that could click at just the right moment, similar to the recent runs of the Florida Panthers.
Naturally, they don`t have all the puzzle pieces in place yet, but the picture could come together: Robert Thomas elevates to superstar status, Jimmy Snuggerud becomes a prolific rookie scorer, and the Blues acquire a game-changing defenseman. When considering a long-shot bet for the Stanley Cup, look for a team with at least a somewhat logical path to assembling all the necessary playoff components.
To Make the Playoffs
San Jose Sharks
Odds: 15-1
The Sharks` rebuild is well underway, but they aren`t quite ready yet. Nevertheless, when evaluating playoff qualification props, they meet a few criteria.
First, is there room for them? In the Western Conference, only teams like the Vegas Golden Knights (-1200), Edmonton Oilers (-1200), Colorado Avalanche (-1000), and Dallas Stars (-900) carry extremely short odds; everyone else is -350 or longer. This leaves some theoretical wiggle room.
The path to regular-season success requires consistency, which the Sharks don`t yet possess. However, with superstar-level prospect talent, there`s a scenario where this team could come together. Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, William Eklund, Michael Misa, Sam Dickinson, and Yaroslav Askarov all have breakout potential. And if reclamation projects like Jeff Skinner, John Klingberg, and Philipp Kurashev also pan out… maybe it could happen. Just maybe.
Hart Memorial Trophy Winner
Nick Suzuki
Odds: 500-1
To win the Hart Trophy, a player needs to be the team leader, carry the club to success, and be considered the most dominant player at his position. This makes Suzuki an incredibly difficult long shot. Even Connor Hellebuyck, who surprised everyone last season, was only 150-1.
Nevertheless, the next generation of NHL talent is bound to break through at some point. It`s hard to see any 500-1 props beating Connor McDavid (+200), Nathan MacKinnon (+475), or Nikita Kucherov (+650), but here’s a case for Suzuki.
If the Montreal Canadiens put together an improbable run to a division title, and if Suzuki`s statistics soar from a dominant power play with Ivan Demidov, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky, propelling him into the Art Ross race… well, actually, those are the only `if` statements we need to get him into consideration. When taking a long shot at the Hart, aim not for the sky, aim for outer space.
Rocket Richard Trophy Winner
Dylan Guenther
Odds: 400-1
In the era of Alex Ovechkin and Auston Matthews, the NHL goal-scoring lead rarely brings surprises. For long shots here, the keys are proven ability and room to grow.
Guenther fits this description. Last season, he played only 70 games, averaging 17 minutes of ice time per game. The Utah Mammoth team aims to take a step forward, with Guenther seen as a key offensive catalyst. If his role expands to a full 82-game slate at 20 minutes per game, even with the same shooting rate, he would reach 281 shots on goal. A bump in shooting percentage from 13.2% to 16% (plausible for a top winger) gets him to 45 goals. Add a little luck, and he`s a Rocket contender.
Similar arguments could be made for other long-shot candidates, but the key is to find players with proven ability and a clear runway to showcase it.
Vezina Trophy Winner
John Gibson
Odds: 250-1
When considering Vezina futures, the key is simple: volume of play. A goaltender needs to start 50+ games to even be in the mix. This rules out many long shots unless you`re betting on an injury to a starter.
Gibson, however, has a path. The Detroit Red Wings are projected to play winning hockey, and the `Yzerplan` appears ready to start paying dividends. If Gibson stays healthy and gets a full share of the crease, the volume and wins boxes are checked.
That leaves just one more ingredient: form. Gibson still carries the pedigree from his Vezina-caliber seasons in 2015-16 and 2018-19 with the Anaheim Ducks. Mix in a little long-shot luck, and he becomes a very plausible surprise candidate — exactly the kind of upside to look for when scanning futures odds.
James Norris Memorial Trophy Winner
MacKenzie Weegar
Odds: 300-1
Let`s be realistic: any Norris Trophy pick that isn`t Cale Makar is essentially a bet on Makar missing significant time this season.
Offense remains the main criterion for the trophy. Weegar is just one season removed from 20 goals and 52 points. If the Calgary Flames trade Rasmus Andersson, that could free up even more offensive opportunities from the blue line for him.
Beyond offense, Weegar excels at defensive elements that often get overlooked for the Norris, like making checks, blocking shots, and tilting the ice.
Even with Makar performing at his usual level, a long-shot defenseman can wedge into the conversation by combining strong defensive play with gaudy offensive numbers. Weegar has shown he can do both.
Most Rookie Points
Arseny Gritsyuk
Odds: 40-1
Among rookie point predictions, Gritsyuk is listed quite low, yet he has a potential path to success. His skills are not in doubt, and he has already demonstrated impressive offensive production in the KHL. The New Jersey Devils need to bolster scoring on the wings alongside their star centers. While it`s a long shot for him to both secure playing time and accumulate enough points to lead all rookies, the opportunity is there if he can seize it.
When evaluating rookie long shots, the talent is usually present, but the key is finding those with a clear path to the top of the depth chart.
Most Shots on Goal
Owen Tippett
Odds: 400-1
Consider this: among players with at least 75 games over the past two seasons, Tippett ranks eighth in shots per minute — just behind Alex Ovechkin and ahead of Tage Thompson.
Shots on goal are all about a player`s mindset and a coach willing to let them fire at will. The leaders are usually the same names each season, so for a new player to jump into the mix, something has to change. With Tippett, the change could come from new coach Rick Tocchet increasing his ice time from 16 minutes per game closer to 20. That makes him an intriguing long-shot bet, as the other pieces are already in place.
With more opportunities to shoot, he could go from a long shot to a contender.
