The 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs are set to kick off this Saturday, following an exhilarating regular season race in both conferences. Hockey fans are in for a treat with first-round matchups like the Battle of Ontario, the Battle of Florida, and Kings vs. Oilers Round 4.
The first round of the playoffs often delivers some of the most intense series, happening before injuries take a major toll on teams. This year`s initial round is especially exciting with genuine rivalries and compelling matchups right from the start.
While any team technically has a shot at winning the Stanley Cup, not all are serious contenders. Some teams look strong on paper but have a history of underperforming in the playoffs – looking at teams like Toronto and Winnipeg.
A common thread among all teams is a significant weakness that could lead to their downfall. However, the team that best addresses its key flaw and gets a bit of luck along the way is most likely to be the one hoisting the Stanley Cup in June. Here’s a breakdown of the major weaknesses for the top 12 contenders.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Washington Capitals
Seed: Metro No. 1
The Washington Capitals were a surprise top finisher in the Eastern Conference, largely due to strong goaltending, standout seasons from players like Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin, and breakthrough performances from young talents.
Washington led the league in 5-on-5 shooting percentage this season, converting on nearly 11% of their shots. This high shooting percentage explains the increased offensive output from several players. Statistically, the Capitals slightly outscored their opponents at 5-on-5.
Analytics suggest Washington`s success was heavily influenced by high shooting percentages and goaltending. Historically, these factors are unpredictable in the playoffs. While their goaltending might suffice in the first round, the Capitals` main weakness is that their exceptional shooting luck might fade at the worst possible moment, and their goaltenders have shown recent inconsistency.
The Capitals are a solid team, but their underlying stats indicate they might not be robust enough to handle a shooting slump in the later playoff rounds.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Seed: Atlantic No. 1
The Toronto Maple Leafs are considered contenders because of their top finish in the Atlantic Division, not due to recent playoff victories. On paper, the Leafs boast excellent goaltending, solid defense, and a system better suited for playoff hockey. They won their division despite less productive seasons from key players, focusing more on team defense.
However, regular season success means little in the playoffs. The Leafs` long-standing weakness is their mental block in the playoffs. For several seasons, despite being favored in the first round, their offense disappears, their goalies are outperformed, and their playoff run ends prematurely.
Under Coach Craig Berube, the Leafs play a more conservative style: improved defense, tighter checking, and an offense focused on net-front presence. But they must overcome their past playoff failures. Their star players are among the best, and performing at their peak is Toronto`s greatest asset. Conversely, if these players are outplayed, it becomes their biggest liability.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Seed: Atlantic No. 2
Year after year, the Tampa Bay Lightning defy expectations. Despite losing key players, they enter the playoffs powered by another exceptional season from Nikita Kucherov, strong goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy, and key contributions from other stars.
The Lightning remain a high-caliber team with a significant advantage: playoff experience and a winning pedigree.
Tampa Bay’s main concern is their good fortune potentially running out. They lead the league in goal differential above expected, indicating they`ve benefited from considerable puck luck.
Moreover, Vasilevskiy has shown vulnerability in recent playoffs, with save percentages below .900 in consecutive series. The Lightning need Vasilevskiy to outperform his counterpart in the first round against the defending champions. Ultimately, the Lightning`s downfall might be the cumulative effect of age and attrition on their core players.
Carolina Hurricanes
Seed: Metro No. 2
The Carolina Hurricanes have been a popular team, but their weakness has been inconsistent offense and goaltending, the opposite of Tampa Bay’s regular season profile.
Their system emphasizes puck possession and control over direct, high-danger offense. Carolina is well-structured, with forward depth and defensive quality, further enhanced by recent additions. They are a balanced team known for speed and generating scoring opportunities.
This season, goaltending is Carolina`s primary flaw, with only Frederik Andersen maintaining a save percentage above .900. Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov must provide sufficient saves for Carolina to win low-scoring games, as their shooting percentage and goal differential are below league average. The Hurricanes need their goaltending to elevate to avoid another early playoff exit.
Florida Panthers
Seed: Atlantic No. 3
The defending Stanley Cup champions finishing third in their division highlights the competitiveness of the Atlantic. Tampa Bay, Toronto, and Florida all have strong cases for Stanley Cup contention.
The Panthers’ main issue is lineup instability due to injuries late in the season. While key players are expected back for the playoffs, their full health is uncertain.
Florida requires peak performance from Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk. While toughness isn`t lacking, the Panthers must maintain discipline. The impact of Aaron Ekblad`s return from suspension also remains to be seen.
Playoff success often depends on team cohesion, and disrupted continuity could be detrimental. However, this is a minor concern compared to other potential flaws. When healthy and at full strength, Florida is arguably the best team in the East, with no apparent weaknesses. If they regain their rhythm and stay healthy, they could contend for the Cup for the third consecutive year.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Winnipeg Jets
Seed: Central No. 1
The Winnipeg Jets winning the Presidents` Trophy could be seen as a bad omen due to the “Presidents` Trophy Curse,” but their main flaw is elsewhere.
Winnipeg`s recurring issue is the playoff performance of their Vezina Trophy-winning goalie. Connor Hellebuyck is likely to win his second Vezina, yet player polls don`t rank him as the top goalie, likely due to past playoff struggles.
Hellebuyck has only two playoff wins in recent seasons with a poor save percentage and significantly more goals allowed than expected. While not solely responsible for past first-round exits, he was a major factor. Regular season Hellebuyck is dominant, but playoff Hellebuyck has been a liability.
The Jets have career-best seasons from key players and should be Cup favorites with Hellebuyck at his best. To reach the Western Conference finals, Hellebuyck must perform at a Vezina level, and their depth must match up against offensively stronger teams.
Vegas Golden Knights
Seed: Pacific No. 1
The Vegas Golden Knights are leading the Pacific Division without any controversies this year.
Jack Eichel has been outstanding and a Hart Trophy contender. Vegas has strong offensive contributions from several players and boasts deep forward and defensive lineups.
Beyond staying healthy, Vegas`s weakness is their penalty kill, which ranks poorly in the league. This could be a problem against teams with strong power plays, especially in the Western Conference playoffs.
Improving their penalty kill is crucial for the Golden Knights, especially facing teams with elite power-play talents in later rounds.
Dallas Stars
Seed: Central No. 2
The Dallas Stars are an exciting team, but they face a significant challenge. The injury to Miro Heiskanen creates a massive void, making Colorado the series favorite.
With Heiskanen, the Stars have two Norris-caliber defensemen. Without him, managing Colorado`s offensive depth will be difficult.
Their forward depth is excellent, but Heiskanen`s absence could be too much to overcome in the first round. His return would immediately elevate Dallas`s contender status. Unfortunately, this flaw is beyond their control and depends on Heiskanen`s recovery.
Los Angeles Kings
Seed: Pacific No. 2
The Los Angeles Kings are a balanced team with strong goaltending and consistent offense. Anze Kopitar remains a top two-way center, and the Kings have achieved impressive results since the trade deadline.
Their main weakness is the power play, which needs to be more effective in the playoffs. Their 5-on-5 play is excellent and allows them to control games, but improving their power play is essential for playoff success, especially against teams with strong power plays in the West.
Colorado Avalanche
Seed: Central No. 3
Despite finishing third in their division, many see the Colorado Avalanche as the top team in the West. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are having exceptional seasons. The addition of Mackenzie Blackwood has solidified their goaltending.
Key additions have enhanced their center depth, and the expected return of Gabriel Landeskog will further boost the team and morale.
On paper, the Avalanche appear to have no major weaknesses, remarkable given a significant trade earlier in the season.
However, a potential issue could be facing Dallas Stars coach Peter DeBoer. DeBoer has a history of playoff success against the Avalanche with different teams and might have a tactical edge over coach Jared Bednar, especially given Blackwood`s limited playoff experience.
Edmonton Oilers
Seed: Pacific No. 3
After a Game 7 Stanley Cup Final loss, the Edmonton Oilers are in a less favorable position this year. Already lacking defensive depth, they might be underdogs against the Kings due to their overall lack of depth.
The injury to Mattias Ekholm further weakens their defense. Injuries to key offensive players also highlight their reliance on top stars.
The Oilers` lack of depth is a recurring issue, exacerbated by offseason departures. Key supporting players have regressed, and goaltending has been inconsistent.
Many factors could derail the Oilers, all stemming from their lack of depth across the roster. Their goaltending must improve, and their superstars must dominate, as the rest of the team doesn`t project as a true contender.
St. Louis Blues
Seed: West wild card No. 2
The St. Louis Blues are listed not as top contenders, but as a team with past Cinderella stories.
Since hiring Coach Jim Montgomery, the Blues have been exceptional, achieving a franchise-record winning streak and going from a low playoff chance to qualification.
The Blues have a history of in-season coaching changes leading to deep playoff runs, reminiscent of their 2019 Stanley Cup win. While a repeat is unlikely, an upset against the Jets is possible.
St. Louis is this year`s underdog. Despite roster flaws, their current momentum and confidence make them a team to watch in the playoffs.
