The Minnesota Wild finalized an unprecedented contract this Tuesday, securing star winger Kirill Kaprizov, 28, with an eight-year deal valued at $136 million, extending through the 2033-34 season. This agreement marks the most substantial in NHL history.
This groundbreaking contract surpasses Alex Ovechkin`s 2008 deal with the Washington Capitals ($124 million) in total value and boasts a higher average annual value (AAV) than Leon Draisaitl`s $14 million contract with the Edmonton Oilers from last September.
Such a monumental agreement has reverberated throughout the NHL, creating both advantageous and disadvantageous situations for various parties. Below, we delve into who stands to gain and who might lose from Kaprizov`s new contract.
Winner: Bill Guerin
Bill Guerin, the general manager, is credited with successfully bringing Kaprizov from the KHL to the NHL in 2021, a feat two preceding Wild GMs couldn`t accomplish. Now, he`s also the individual who persuaded Kaprizov to commit his long-term future to Minnesota.
Guerin navigated significant hurdles during negotiations. A major challenge was Kaprizov`s potential unrestricted free agency in a landscape of increasing salary caps, which would have guaranteed numerous interested teams. Several of these teams might have been more attractive than the Wild, given Minnesota`s perceived status as a mid-tier contender and not a primary destination for star players, as noted by an NHL agent. Kaprizov`s strong negotiating position was clear, culminating in the exceptionally lucrative deal he ultimately secured.
However, Guerin also possessed key advantages. The Wild could offer Kaprizov an eighth contract year, reportedly a crucial element for the player. Furthermore, ownership provided the financial muscle to first table a $128 million offer—already a record—and then enhance it when Kaprizov initially declined.
Another benefit for Guerin was that Kaprizov`s contract materialized before a significant shift in Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) rules. A substantial $128 million of the contract`s total is structured as annual signing bonuses, accounting for 94% of its value. This is notable because, from September 2026, signing bonuses in contracts will be capped at 60% of the total aggregate compensation.
Guerin successfully closed the deal at a point when many interpreted Kaprizov`s initial refusal of a record offer as a rejection of the entire franchise. Regardless of opinions on the financial terms, Guerin deserves recognition for finalizing this pivotal agreement.
Loser: Kevin Cheveldayoff
Since the 2021-22 season, Kyle Connor has recorded 153 goals, just five fewer than Kaprizov`s 158, despite playing 44 more games for Minnesota. With a 14.2% shooting percentage, the 28-year-old Winnipeg Jets winger is undeniably an elite scorer who, as an unrestricted free agent next summer, is due significant compensation.
The key uncertainty is whether this will occur with the Jets, where he`s beginning his tenth season, or if he`ll move to another team.
For Connor, if he was anticipating a benchmark contract, Kaprizov`s deal has set a deafening precedent. Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff witnessed Kaprizov redefine the market for a player who, in his career-best season, notched 41 goals and 56 assists for 97 points in 82 games.
Cheveldayoff previously excelled at retaining stars like goalie Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele, signing both to seven-year deals at an $8.5 million AAV. However, the market conditions that favored the Jets in 2023 are no longer present, largely due to Kaprizov`s new contract.
The dilemma for Cheveldayoff and the Jets is clear: Does Connor warrant such a hefty price tag?
An NHL executive commented on Connor, stating, “He`s a prolific scorer, but he also has defensive liabilities.”
Winner: Paul Theofanous
Wild owner Craig Leipold stated to The Athletic that, despite Kaprizov`s initial rejection of an eight-year, $128 million extension offer on September 9th, the team remained confident in his desire to re-sign.
“Kaprizov himself never brought up the financial terms; that was consistently his agent,” Leipold remarked. “We always believed we`d finalize this, and in the recent week or so, we understood that $17 million was the target.”
Paul Theofanous, Kaprizov`s agent, is renowned for his formidable negotiation skills. He not only secured an additional $8 million on top of an already record-setting $128 million offer but also structured the contract to pay Kaprizov $128 million in “buyout-proof” bonus money. Theofanous`s firm stance ultimately yielded a massive victory, even though the Wild were convinced Kaprizov would not risk testing free agency.
Loser: Player Movement
The trend of teams successfully retaining their star players persists.
The NHL`s salary cap stands at $95.5 million this season, with projections indicating it will reach at least $104 million by 2026-27, marking the first time it will exceed $100 million. Many anticipated this increase would spur more player movement, as teams would possess greater financial flexibility to recruit new talent.
However, contrary to expectations, the expanding cap has enabled teams to hold onto their existing rosters more effectively during offseasons, reducing the intense cap-related pressures. Kaprizov`s decision to remain with his current team is the most recent example, and it`s unlikely to be the last.
Winner: Early Contract Extensions
Hart Levine from Puck Pedia, a salary cap analysis site, suggests that hockey enthusiasts should simply acknowledge this as the evolving norm within the salary cap framework.
“While it`s a significant figure, we must become accustomed to a reality where the cap steadily increases annually,” he explained. “It`s projected to rise by 9% between this season and the next.”
Context is everything; Kaprizov`s substantial deal could even appear to be a steal within just a few seasons.
Consider Leon Draisaitl`s contract, signed last September. Levine calculates that, under next year`s projected salary cap, Draisaitl`s deal would equate to $15.25 million against the cap. In contrast, if Kaprizov`s contract were adjusted to current cap values, his AAV would be approximately $15.6 million.
An NHL executive described the increasing salary cap as a “tidal wave” that will continuously lead to more large-scale contracts. This implies that teams` strategic advantage lies in securing players long-term before this wave fully materializes.
In conversations with NHL sources regarding effective cap management, the Carolina Hurricanes frequently emerged as a prime example.
Under GM Eric Tulsky, their front office has proactively extended several players with long-term contracts in anticipation of the substantial salary cap hike. These include forwards Sebastian Aho ($9.75 million until 2031-32), Seth Jarvis ($7,420,087 until 2031-32), and Logan Stankoven ($6 million until 2033-34), alongside new acquisition defenseman K`Andre Miller ($7.5 million until 2032-33) and forward Nikolaj Ehlers ($8.5 million until 2030-31).
The Hurricanes have successfully secured their core roster for the long term at favorable rates, maintaining the flexibility to pursue significant trade acquisitions, a strategy they`ve employed in recent seasons with players like Jake Guentzel and Mikko Rantanen.
This leads us to another point…
Losers: Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen
Kaprizov`s deal will undoubtedly intensify discussions about the disparities between NHL cities located in states with high income taxes and those without, particularly as no-tax states have recently seen more Stanley Cup victories.
An analysis by the Tax Foundation reveals that Minnesota imposes the fifth-highest top income tax rate in the U.S. at 9.85%. This tax burden almost certainly contributed to Kaprizov`s $136 million contract over eight years, as he would not have commanded such a sum in a state without income tax. Jeff Marek of Daily Faceoff reported an agent`s estimation that Kaprizov`s average annual value in a tax-free state like Florida would have been closer to $14 million.
Even with tax considerations, Kaprizov`s annual earnings would still surpass those of Mitch Marner (Vegas Golden Knights) and Mikko Rantanen (Dallas Stars), both of whom secured significant $12 million AAV contracts recently, extending through 2032-33.
Marner`s points-per-game average over the last three seasons matched Kaprizov`s (1.24), with Rantanen`s trailing closely (1.22). One wonders how different their contracts might have been had they foreseen the financial precedent Kaprizov just established.
Winner: Kirill Kaprizov
Naturally, the spotlight falls on Kirill Kaprizov himself, who has redefined NHL contract benchmarks in both total value and average annual value. Statistically, he ranks among the world`s elite offensive hockey players, consistently demonstrating a 50-goal scoring pace, dynamic playmaking abilities, and a commitment to defense that belies his impressive offensive numbers.
However, one area where Kaprizov`s performance figures have been inconsistent is games played. The winger has exceeded 80 games only once in his NHL career, during the 2021-22 season when he placed seventh in MVP voting. Last season, he was sidelined for much of the year, playing only 41 games. He is currently 28, with his 29th birthday approaching next April.
Despite these injury challenges, Kaprizov`s ability to consistently produce remarkable statistics is a testament to his talent. Given the magnitude of this investment, the Wild critically need him on the ice. Over the past two seasons, Minnesota`s record was 63-41-12 with Kaprizov playing, compared to 21-23-4 without him, underscoring his pivotal role.
Loser: Connor McDavid
The NHL`s most intricate upcoming contract decision has just become even more complex.
Connor McDavid is approaching the final year of his Oilers contract. As previously discussed, all options remain open for his future, ranging from a shorter-term extension to stay in Edmonton to departing for what would undeniably be the wealthiest free-agent contract in NHL history.
Current league speculation suggests that if McDavid opts to extend his stay with the Oilers past this season, it might not be for a maximum contract. The rationale is that McDavid would seek fair compensation while simultaneously allowing Oilers GM Stan Bowman financial room to enhance the team in pursuit of McDavid`s long-sought Stanley Cup.
Conversely, some argue that McDavid should still demand the highest possible compensation even if he remains in Edmonton, questioning why he should absorb the financial consequences of the team`s past cap management errors.
Connor McDavid is universally recognized as the best hockey player globally. Whatever he asks for in a new Edmonton contract will likely be granted. However, the precise nature of “whatever he wants” has become a more contentious point, as the financial standard has now shifted from Draisaitl`s $14 million to Kaprizov`s $17 million. The key question is whether McDavid will further elevate this benchmark with his next contract, regardless of where he signs it.
