The Stanley Cup playoffs invariably provide valuable learning experiences, whether teams achieve success or face elimination. Some lessons endure, others fade, and new insights frequently emerge as the postseason unfolds.
Based on games played through Monday night, here are eight significant observations from the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs so far.
Toronto: A Genuine Contender?
Yes, the Stanley Cup contender. Are you surprised? It`s understandable, given the Toronto Maple Leafs` history – no Cup Final appearance since their last win in 1967 (a 56-year span) and no conference finals appearance since 2002. This history of disappointment and self-sabotage often feels like a heavy burden for their playoff teams. Their greatest adversary frequently seems to be their own psychological fragility, allowing doubt to undermine their Cup aspirations.
So, what`s different about a Toronto team that resists letting doubt take root? This iteration has shown remarkable resilience. They secured five wins in seven games across the first two rounds. Key members of their “Core Five” (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Matthew Knies) have delivered crucial plays in high-pressure moments. Perhaps most significantly, they appear to have internalized the psychological principles instilled by coach Craig Berube, and the approach is yielding results.
When Berube coached the St. Louis Blues to the Stanley Cup in 2019, that team was renowned for its mental toughness. They navigated an improbable turnaround from last place in January and overcame numerous challenges on their championship journey by consistently moving forward. As assistant coach Larry Robinson noted in 2019, “We`ve been counted out at times all year in certain situations, and every time we were counted out, we came back… They showed a lot of will and a lot of heart.”
Berube`s hiring in Toronto was partly based on the hope that he could instill this stoic playoff focus into a franchise historically prone to panic. This theory was rigorously tested in the first round. The team`s core held firm: the old Leafs might have folded after losing Game 5 at home, dropped Game 6, and then lost Game 7 at home for maximum heartache. Instead, they won Game 6 decisively, ending the series.
In Game 1 of the second round against Florida, they built leads of 2-0 and 4-1, weathered the Panthers` rally after goaltender Anthony Stolarz was injured, and held on for the win.
Perhaps this version of the Leafs is fundamentally different. Maybe years of playoff setbacks have taught the Core Five how to win. Maybe they finally have the right coach to reinforce those lessons and silence external noise when adversity strikes. Maybe the Toronto Maple Leafs are genuinely Cup-worthy. Or perhaps this declaration will look foolish by Game 6 of the Florida series.
Are Playoffs Just High-Scoring Now?
When you envision a Game 7 in the Stanley Cup playoffs, what score comes to mind? Likely a tight, low-scoring affair dominated by goaltenders, with penalties called only for blatant rule violations or egregious fouls. Yet, Game 7 between Dallas and Colorado ended 4-2. The Game 7 between Winnipeg and St. Louis was 4-3, despite going to double overtime.
This reflects a broader playoff trend. Through 47 first-round games, 307 goals were scored, averaging 6.53 goals per game. If this average persists, the 2024-25 postseason would be the highest-scoring since 1992-93 (6.84 goals per game).
An average exceeding six goals per game would mark the third time in the last four postseasons this threshold has been met. You have to go back to 1992-95 to find a similar multiyear trend. In fact, the NHL had a 26-season stretch (1995-2022) without a playoff average of six or more goals per game.
Scoring has increased significantly in the NHL over the past eight seasons. Even with slight year-over-year declines recently (from 6.36 in 2022-23 to 6.08 this regular season), the league average has been over six goals per game in six of the last seven seasons, with the exception being the shortened 2020-21 season (5.87).
One key factor is the continued success of power plays. This season`s conversion rate was 21.6%, the ninth-best all-time and highest since 1985-86 (22.2%). The league-wide power-play success rate has exceeded 20% in six of the past eight seasons.
The conversion rate in the first round of the playoffs was 24.9%, up from 20.6% for the entirety of last year`s postseason. This is another multiyear trend: After only one Stanley Cup postseason with a power play conversion rate above 20% in a 36-season span (1983-2020), the NHL has seen a conversion rate higher than 20% in five consecutive postseasons.
The idea that playoff hockey is a fundamentally different sport than the regular season is deeply ingrained. However, the numbers this year suggest that the recent increase in regular-season scoring has, for now, carried over into the postseason.
Mikko Rantanen Proved His Value
Future dominant performances by a player against their former team will inevitably be compared to Mikko Rantanen`s performance in eliminating the Avalanche in the first round.
He tallied 11 points in the final three games of the series, two of which were Stars victories. Martin Necas, the player Colorado acquired from Carolina in the trade involving Rantanen, managed four points in that same span and was held scoreless in Game 7.
Rantanen became the first player in NHL history (regular season or playoffs) to record four-point periods in back-to-back games. He`s also the first player with 10 or more points across Games 5-7 of a series. Adding to his historical performance, he was the first player to score a hat trick in the third period of a Game 7 and the first to record a hat trick against his former team in a Game 7.
He is operating in “playoff beast mode,” essentially serving as an MVP for Dallas in this series. Frankly, he`s the kind of player the Avalanche desperately needed.
Whether Rantanen`s contract demands priced him out of Colorado or the Avalanche made a “tough business decision” for salary cap flexibility hoping to replace his production collectively, the decision to trade Rantanen before free agency was theirs. Had they not sent him to Carolina, he would have been playing alongside Nathan MacKinnon in this series. While other roster moves Colorado made at the trade deadline might not have happened, Rantanen would still be an Avalanche player and wouldn`t have been a Star – a factor that changes everything.
The Hurricanes pursued Rantanen when he became available, hoping to sign him long-term (which didn`t happen), partly due to his reputation as a reliable playoff performer. He entered this postseason with 101 points in 81 career playoff games, including 25 points in 20 games during the Avalanche`s 2022 Stanley Cup win.
Credit Carolina for identifying and acquiring two impactful playoff scorers in the last two seasons: Rantanen and Jake Guentzel (who was arguably Tampa Bay`s best player in their first-round loss). It`s just that the Hurricanes couldn`t retain either player, and in Rantanen`s case, they didn`t even get to see him play for them in the postseason.
The Hockey Gods delivered Mikko Rantanen facing his former Avalanche teammates in the first round, a story of a player getting “revenge” on the team that moved on from him. Will they also give us Mikko Rantanen facing his former Hurricanes teammates in the Final, a narrative of a team seeking “revenge” on the team that moved on from *them*? With the Hockey Gods, who are known for their unpredictable nature, you never know.
Missing Key Players Can Spark Game 7 Rallies?
Granted, the sample size is limited.
However, the Dallas Stars mounted a third-period comeback from a two-goal deficit in Game 7 to eliminate the Avalanche, doing so without injured forwards Jason Robertson (80 points) and defenseman Miro Heiskanen (averaging 25:10 ice time per game), who both missed the series.
Then, the Winnipeg Jets rallied from a two-goal third-period deficit in Game 7 to eliminate the St. Louis Blues, managing it without injured forward Mark Scheifele (87 points), who missed Games 6 and 7, and defenseman Josh Morrissey (averaging 24:23 ice time), who played only four shifts in Game 7 before exiting with a shoulder injury.
Evidently, being without two of your most crucial players in the season`s most critical game seems to bode well.
Okay, the counterargument is valid: perhaps if those players had been healthy, a Game 7 might not have been necessary. This is similar to the “Pete DeBoer is 9-0 in Game 7s” observation, which overlooks his 7-15 record in Game 6s and 5-7 record when having a chance to clinch in Game 6. It`s focusing on the result without fully considering the process.
However, I would counter that counter-argument with a touch of “Ewing Theory.” This philosophy, popularized by writer Bill Simmons, suggests that teams featuring Basketball Hall of Famer Patrick Ewing (Georgetown University and the New York Knicks) would mysteriously perform better when Ewing was injured or sidelined by foul trouble.
The Ewing Theory doesn`t apply universally. Witness the New Jersey Devils` quick five-game exit against Carolina without an injured Jack Hughes. But it`s not solely about winning or losing in a star player`s absence; it also highlights how other players respond. Consider Nico Hischier of the Devils, who had two goals in his first 17 regular-season games but then scored four goals in five playoff games without both Jack Hughes and Luke Hughes (for four of those games).
Without Heiskanen, who had been tasked with defending Nathan MacKinnon`s line earlier, the Stars relied on Cody Ceci and Esa Lindell to contain him in Game 7. MacKinnon scored once but was otherwise limited. Without Robertson, Mikko Rantanen stepped up dramatically with 11 points in the last three games.
For Winnipeg, without Scheifele, captain Adam Lowry centered the top line with Kyle Connor and Alex Iafallo for over 14 minutes in Game 7; they held a plus-21 advantage in shot attempts and combined for the double-overtime winner. Cole Perfetti scored three goals with Scheifele out, including two in Game 7.
“Him scoring in St. Louis was big. Then he gets two big ones tonight,” coach Scott Arniel said of Perfetti. “That`s the evolution you want. For a guy that doesn`t have much experience this time of year, I like his response in a heavy, heavy series.”
Without Morrissey, Winnipeg`s defense corps was down to five players. Neal Pionk and Dylan Samberg each logged over 44 minutes, and Haydn Fleury had a career game with 33:02 of ice time.
“What a yeoman`s effort by a defense. They had a different partner every shift. It was guys stepping up. That`s what we needed,” Arniel commented.
Of course, getting their second-leading scorer and top defenseman back is what they truly need. Perhaps in Round 2…
The Fourth Time Was Definitely Not the Charm
There were valid reasons to believe the Los Angeles Kings could finally defeat the Edmonton Oilers in the first round, despite failing to do so in the previous three postseasons.
The Oilers` defensive play this season was inconsistent, supported by unreliable goaltending, and they were missing key defenseman Mattias Ekholm. Edmonton`s superstar duo, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, had both missed games late in the regular season due to injury.
The Kings, conversely, seemed well-equipped to shut them down, boasting the best regular-season goals-against average (2.48) and a Vezina Trophy finalist goaltender in Darcy Kuemper – factors they hadn`t brought to their previous playoff matchups against Edmonton. The previous series between these teams had been remarkably close: since 2023, 10 out of 12 playoff meetings were decided by a single goal or had the game-winning goal scored in the third period.
However, the primary reason so many predicted a Kings victory (including 16 out of 26 ESPN analysts!) was the belief that the fourth meeting *had* to break the trend. How could essentially the same teams face off in the first round four straight times and one team win every single series?
History, however, suggests this pattern is possible. Since the 1968 expansion era, there has been only one other instance of the same two teams meeting in the opening round for four consecutive seasons: Montreal vs. Boston from 1984 to 1987. Montreal won every single time.
But hey, fourth time`s the charm! Just ask the Buffalo Bills, who played the Kansas City Chiefs four times in five postseasons and… lost every single time. Now, imagine facing not one Patrick Mahomes, but two, and that`s essentially the challenge the Kings faced against perennial MVP candidates Draisaitl and McDavid.
It didn`t help that, after a promising start with two home wins, the Kings suffered a series of self-inflicted wounds, punctuated by what was arguably the worst coaching performance of the first round by Jim Hiller. His unsuccessful coach`s challenge in Game 3 gifted Edmonton the win, giving the Oilers a power play after Los Angeles had tied the game 4-4. His conservative approach of sitting on leads and his reluctance to utilize depth players reflected a defeatist mindset against a team that capitalizes on weakness.
Given the current playoff format, there`s always next year. This latest playoff disappointment also cost Rob Blake his job as general manager in Los Angeles.
The Reign of Super Mega Lines
Winning the Stanley Cup traditionally requires significant contributions from every part of the lineup. Depth is often considered the deciding factor between hoisting the trophy and succumbing to playoff pressure.
Having said that, it is absolutely thrilling when teams decide to combine three exceptionally talented players to create a “Super Mega Line.”
The Vegas Golden Knights deployed such a line with Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and William Karlsson. Coach Bruce Cassidy put them together after winger Pavel Dorofeyev missed Game 6 due to injury, tasking his trio of defensively responsible players with handling Kirill Kaprizov`s line. He watched them effectively neutralize and outscore Minnesota`s primary offensive threat in the elimination game.
“Everyone stepped up at different parts of the series and found ways to contribute,” Eichel commented. “That`s how you win this time of year.”
Despite limited minutes, the Golden Knights` top trio posted an impressive 67.7% expected goals percentage.
Stone and Eichel started hitting their stride late in the Minnesota series, recording points in each of the final three games, all Vegas wins. Perhaps Cassidy will keep them together with Karlsson to face either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. It`s even possible they will have to contend with both simultaneously. The Oilers are certainly no strangers to assembling their own Super Mega Lines.
Regular-Season Awards Don`t Guarantee Playoff Success
When discussing regular-season awards, I`m not referring to the Presidents` Trophy, which is widely believed to be cursed. Only eight teams finishing first overall since 1986 have gone on to win the Stanley Cup, the last being Chicago in 2013. Since then, and under the wild-card playoff format, no Presidents` Trophy winner has even reached the Stanley Cup Final, with two having been eliminated in the opening round.
Winnipeg, consider yourselves warned.
No, I`m talking about individual NHL awards. Take Cale Makar, the strong favorite to win the Norris Trophy for the second time this season. This is a player whom 71.7% of his peers named the best overall defenseman in the league, earning him a Ted Lindsay Award nomination.
Where was that dominant player in the first round?
The scoresheet shows Makar with five points in seven games. Three of those points came in Colorado`s 7-4 Game 6 victory at home. He also registered assists in the first two games. However, he was held scoreless in four games against Dallas, including a passive performance in Game 7 where he finished minus-1, took a third-period tripping penalty, and managed only one shot on goal.
Dallas had a similar effect on him last postseason, as Makar went scoreless in three of their six games and had just one assist and two shots in Colorado`s Game 6 loss.
“I`ve got to be a lot better,” Makar admitted before Game 6. “I think there`s been glimpses where I`ve been pretty good. There`s a lot of things I can do a lot better.”
Something was clearly amiss with Makar in that series.
Something has also been amiss with Connor Hellebuyck for *three* consecutive playoff series.
To be fair, he was solid in the third period and both overtimes in Game 7 against St. Louis, balancing out two questionable goals he allowed earlier. But there wouldn`t have been a Game 7 without Connor Hellebuyck.
That statement is not intended as a compliment. Had he performed better than a practice target in any of those three games in St. Louis, the Jets wouldn`t have needed a Game 7 to advance. But he didn`t; he was poor. He was pulled three times and finished with a .758 save percentage and a 7.24 goals-against average on the road. In the last 40 years of Stanley Cup playoff hockey, that`s the lowest save percentage by any goalie on the road with a minimum of three road games played and 50 shots faced.
Over the past three postseasons combined, Hellebuyck holds a 1-7 record with an .838 save percentage and a 5.19 goals-against average on the road.
Look, I am happy for Hellebuyck. The first round was a nightmare for him, and now he has an opportunity to redeem his reputation against Dallas, along with a chance to reassert his claim for the Team USA Olympic crease by outdueling Jake Oettinger, who is very much ready to take that spot.
Furthermore, his sigh-of-relief Game 7 victory means we are spared the extreme awkwardness of a goalie who arguably cost his team a first-round playoff series for the third straight season winning the NHL`s award for best goaltender for the second consecutive year – and potentially also being named MVP.
Washington`s Front Office is Just Showing Off Now
Consider the top 10 scorers for the Washington Capitals after their first-round series against the Montreal Canadiens.
- Alex Ovechkin is there, the “Russian Machine,” with four goals in five games.
- Tom Wilson is there, with five points in five games, plus a memorable exchange on the bench, a widely shared crying meme, and a hit that resonated throughout Montreal.
- Connor McMichael also had five points in five games and finished with a plus-5 rating.
That`s where the list of prominent homegrown Capitals ends.
Dylan Strome (nine points) was acquired after being discarded by the Chicago Blackhawks. Anthony Beauvillier, who had five points, is on his sixth team in three seasons, arriving via a trade from the Pittsburgh Penguins at the deadline. Brandon Duhaime was a free-agent signing who saw a career-high average ice time of 13:21.
Jakob Chychrun and Pierre-Luc Dubois were “buy-low” trade acquisitions last offseason, with Dubois` stock particularly low due to his contract and struggles in Los Angeles. Andrew Mangiapane was another trade addition. Trevor van Riemsdyk, a free-agent pickup in 2020, has flourished in Washington.
I have previously written about Washington`s impressive retooling effort around Ovechkin, highlighting the front office`s skill and the organization`s ability to develop and enhance talent. This has been clearly evident in the playoffs. Frankly, it`s an underappreciated aspect of their team building.
The Capitals are seen as significant underdogs against Carolina. However, these two teams are more evenly matched than the odds suggest, with Washington holding a key advantage with home ice.
“We just know the ins and outs of a lot of their systems because we play the same thing,” Capitals coach Spencer Carbery said. “It just becomes two teams [deciding] who can do it better and who can do it more consistently for a long period of time.”
Underestimate the Capitals at your peril, Eastern Conference. They possess depth, chemistry, solid goaltending, and, when all else fails, the greatest goal scorer in NHL history on the power play.
