The 153rd Open Championship is set to commence on Thursday at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. Xander Schauffele is the reigning champion, while Shane Lowry previously won on this course in 2019. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and No. 2 Rory McIlroy, both major winners this year, are among the top contenders. This preview addresses key questions: will the favorites dominate, what lesser-known players might surprise, and how will Royal Portrush challenge the field?
Is Scottie Scheffler still the overwhelming favorite this week?
Scottie Scheffler is looking to win his first Open Championship.
Analysis: Despite not having a top-three finish at The Open, Scottie Scheffler`s strong performance in links golf, including a seventh-place tie last year, suggests he is well-suited for the format. His elite iron play and significantly improved putting (ranking 22nd on tour) are key strengths. He has consistently placed in the top 25 in all 15 PGA Tour starts this season, with 10 consecutive top-10 finishes. While Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm are strong contenders, Scheffler`s consistency makes him hard to bet against.
Caveat: While Scheffler`s overall game is formidable, his comfort with the unpredictable nature of links golf, which can often feel unfair, is a point of discussion. Scheffler himself views Portrush as a “fairer” links course, particularly its pot bunkers, which tend to funnel balls centrally. However, his putting remains a potential vulnerability; he lost strokes on the greens at the recent Scottish Open, raising questions about his adaptation to links surfaces. He emphasizes that adjusting to green speed is crucial for putting on these courses.
What to expect from Rory McIlroy this week?
Rory McIlroy is looking for his second Open Championship title.
Analysis: Rory McIlroy is anticipated to perform much better than his last appearance at Royal Portrush in 2019. That year, overwhelmed by local expectations, he began with a quadruple-bogey and struggled, finishing with an 8-over 79 in the first round. However, he impressively rallied with a 6-under 65 in the second round, almost making the cut. McIlroy acknowledges the pressure of playing in his homeland, stating he learned to better manage internal expectations. He and Shane Lowry are expected to draw large crowds again. McIlroy`s game is showing improvement, with a tie for sixth at the Travelers Championship and a second-place finish at the Genesis Scottish Open. He also holds a strong connection to Royal Portrush, having set the course record with a 61 at age 16.
Commentary: McIlroy appears more at ease and engaged with the home crowd, a stark contrast to 2019. This embrace of the “homecoming” atmosphere seems to be benefiting him. Crucially, his game is in excellent form, looking sharper than it has since the Masters, and he expresses confidence after his strong showing at the Scottish Open. It would be surprising if McIlroy isn`t a significant factor in the contention this weekend.
Thoughts on Xander Schauffele`s defense?
Analysis: As the defending champion, Xander Schauffele seeks a positive outcome to salvage what has been a challenging season. Despite not missing a cut in 12 starts and securing seven top-25 finishes, his year feels incomplete due to an eight-week absence from a rib injury. His best results were an eighth-place tie at the Masters and at the Scottish Open. His struggles in 2025, following his two major wins last season, are linked to his performance off the tee (ranking 112th) and putting (ranking 138th).
Commentary: Schauffele`s philosophical approach to links golf, embracing its inherent difficulty and unpredictability, suggests he is well-suited for the format and may contend for multiple Open titles. He emphasizes the importance of a positive attitude in adverse weather and visualization. Despite a less-than-stellar season, he is showing an upward trend, with recent top finishes at the U.S. Open and Scottish Open. Should challenging weather conditions emerge, Schauffele is considered one of the few players capable of excelling.
What to know about Royal Portrush and how you expect it to play this week
Royal Portrush hosted the Open Championship in 2019.
Analysis: The playability of Royal Portrush, situated on Northern Ireland`s northern tip, will heavily depend on the weather and wind. In 2019, the course saw exceptional scoring conditions for the first three rounds, with calm winds and no rain, allowing Shane Lowry to set a 54-hole Open scoring record with a Saturday 63. However, Sunday brought torrential rain and strong winds, making conditions significantly tougher. Scheffler noted that weather is the “strongest part of the test” at Portrush. Schauffele added that wind can even impact putting, highlighting that a well-rounded player is needed to win.
Commentary: Royal Portrush can be vulnerable to low scores but also incredibly challenging, depending on wind strength and direction. It demands strategic decision-making. McIlroy`s practice round, where he carefully selected clubs for varying distances and debated shots with his caddie, exemplified this strategic need. Unlike many links courses, Portrush features significant elevation changes, requiring a blend of ground play and aerial shots. Success will likely come to those who master when to employ each approach.
One longer shot that could be in contention this week?
Analysis: Matt Fitzpatrick, the 2022 U.S. Open champion, could be a dark horse. Despite recently describing his game as “rubbish,” he showed strong form with an eighth-place tie at the PGA Championship. While his Open Championship record isn`t stellar, he enters the week with good momentum, securing an eighth-place tie at the Rocket Classic and fourth at the Scottish Open. His ability to perform in difficult weather conditions, as demonstrated during his U.S. Open victory, makes him a formidable contender if conditions turn tricky.
Commentary: Justin Rose is another strong long shot. He recently competed in a playoff against McIlroy at the Masters and came very close to winning The Open at Royal Troon last year, finishing just two shots behind Schauffele. Rose`s game is peaking, evidenced by his final-round 7-under at the Scottish Open, which propelled him to a sixth-place finish. A victory for Rose would be a momentous story, ending a 33-year drought for English golfers at The Open.
