Betting on golf is a fascinating, though sometimes maddening, puzzle – much like trying to sink a 3-foot putt for par with your friends watching. There are countless ways to wager on a tournament, but if you`re just blindly picking outright winners and hoping for the best, you`ll likely find yourself in a financial bunker.
Instead, here is a step-by-step guide on how to professionally structure your betting strategy, balancing risk and potential reward to ensure you stay in contention until Sunday.
When betting on golf, three key factors often come into play: course fit, current form, and course history.
- Course fit is about how well a golfer`s skillset matches the course layout – whether it`s a bomber`s paradise, a track demanding precision, or a putting contest.
- Current form considers recent results, momentum, and confidence – a player hitting it well tee-to-green last week is more appealing than one searching for their swing.
- Course history is the comfort factor. Some players perform better on certain courses due to the type of grass or positive past experiences. The ideal situation is when all three align. However, in betting, you`re looking for the best value, and sometimes prioritizing one factor over others can give you an edge.
Understand Your Betting Options
Golf betting is more than just selecting a winner. There are many ways to get involved, some safer than others. If you structure your bets correctly, you can still profit even if your main pick falters. Here`s a quick overview of the most popular bet types:
Outright Winner
This is the classic “Who will lift the trophy on Sunday?” bet. Because golf fields are large, outright odds are attractive, but this also means they are difficult to hit. A 30-to-1 ticket is exciting, but if you only bet outright winners, many weekends your wallet will resemble the thick rough at a U.S. Open.
Top-5, Top-10, and Top-20 Finishes
Consider these more conservative wagers, with Top-20 bets having a higher probability of success. Instead of needing a golfer to win, they just need to finish within a specific range. A Top-20 bet at +120 might not sound thrilling, but consistently cashing these will keep your bankroll healthy while you place smaller wagers on outright winners. A golfer at 30-to-1 to win has an implied probability of 3.2%. Compare this to a Top-20 bet at +200 (33% implied probability) – a significant difference, right? This is why I bet less on high odds and more on higher-probability plays.
First-Round Leader
This is where it gets interesting. Instead of following a four-day tournament, you only need your golfer to lead after 18 holes. Since first-round odds are often 20-to-1 or longer, I place these bets in fractions of a unit (more on this later). Morning tee times, calm conditions, and aggressive players are key factors in first-round leader betting. If you like a player to potentially win the tournament, it`s certainly worth risking something on them to start strong in the opening round. If successful, you are potentially playing with profit for the rest of your card.
Head-to-Head Matchups
If betting outright winners is like aiming for the pin, matchup bets are like a layup to the middle of the green. You`re simply picking one golfer to beat another, either for a single round or the entire tournament. This is a much more controlled way to bet. I prefer betting on the full tournament, as it offers a broader picture over four days compared to the higher volatility of a single round. There are also three-ball matchups, similar to head-to-head but with three players. The odds are longer, but adding a third player increases the risk.
Props and Majors-Only Markets
Majors unlock a variety of exciting bets. Some are available weekly, while others appear only for the year`s biggest tournaments:
- Top American, Top European, etc.: Selecting the best finisher from a specific region.
- Will there be a hole-in-one?: Self-explanatory. Always fun, always tempting.
- Lowest round, Highest round: Will someone match Cam Smith`s -8 at St. Andrews? Or will someone post an 82 in windy conditions?
- Make the Cut Parlays: A combination bet on multiple players to make the cut line.
Structuring Your Betting Card and Managing Your Bet Size
Throwing darts at the board and hoping for a bull`s-eye is not a strategy – it`s a quick way to run out of funds before the weekend. And if you`re betting the same amount on everything, stop now – that`s like using a putter from the fairway.
Instead, I like to build my betting card around two or three main players and combine different bet types to balance risk and reward. Since golf odds vary significantly, bet sizing must be proportional to the risk.
This approach works because Top-20 bets provide consistency, cashing more often and keeping your bankroll stable. Top-10 and Top-5 wagers might be 0.5 units, while outright winners could range from 0.2 to 0.25 units, as they are harder to hit. First-round leaders are even higher risk but offer high potential reward, giving you a chance for a big win with smaller bet sizes. Spreading bets across different markets keeps you engaged throughout the tournament. Even if your outright pick struggles, your Top-20 bet could still win. The longer the odds, the smaller your bet size should be, as the implied probability is much lower. Betting too much on long shots can quickly deplete your funds if you have a losing streak.
If you`re betting on multiple players (five or more) in an event, your total exposure needs to be balanced so you don`t risk everything on a single golfer. The more players you add, the more you need to adjust individual bet sizes to manage overall risk.
PGA Tour`s Biggest Tournaments: The Four Majors and Golf`s `Fifth Major`
Like anything else, betting on golf is about discipline and using wagering to enhance your viewing experience. Golf betting can be a grind. If you expect to hit an outright winner every week, you`re in for a rude awakening. But by structuring your bets wisely, managing risk, and spreading exposure across different markets, you can stay profitable and keep the excitement going all weekend.
PGA Championship: May 15-18, Quail Hollow Club (Charlotte, N.C.)
U.S. Open: June 12-15, Oakmont (Pa.) Country Club
The Open Championship: July 17-20, Royal Portrush (Northern Ireland)
Masters Tournament: Rory McIlroy (-11, won in playoff)
The Players Championship: Rory McIlroy (-12, won in playoff)
With one of the strongest fields, a massive purse, and TPC Sawgrass as the backdrop, it`s as close to a major as you can get. It may not have the official label, but the drama, history, and that island green at 17 make it one of the year`s best tournaments.
Bets to Make on the 2025 PGA Championship
Odds are accurate as of publication.
Quail Hollow isn`t just about hitting the ball long; it`s about being bold and smart simultaneously. You need to take calculated risks off the tee and handle tough shots when the course presents challenges. It rewards players who don`t just play it safe but know when to be aggressive and when to hold back. For this PGA Championship, I`m backing players who aren`t afraid to take chances while remaining steady under pressure. The winners at Quail Hollow are those who can drive the ball powerfully, hit towering long irons, and scramble exceptionally well when they miss.
2025 PGA Championship Favorites
- Scottie Scheffler +450
- Rory McIlroy +475
- Bryson DeChambeau +850
This year, it feels like the ultimate showdown between Rory McIlroy and the LIV players. McIlroy has the history, form, and course knowledge. He`s essentially the king of this track. Then you have LIV players like Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm, arriving with something to prove, but they`re stepping onto Rory`s home turf. It`s not just about skill; it`s about pride and making a statement. If there`s a place where Rory asserts his dominance and reminds everyone who owns the course, it`s here at Quail Hollow.
Let`s break down golf`s second major.
My Favorite Bets
Rory McIlroy Top 5 (+110) and Win (+475)
Picking the second favorite, how original, right? However, McIlroy at Quail Hollow is like putting a lion back in its territory. He knows every inch of this course. He has won here four times, including his first PGA title in 2010 and the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship. His combination of length off the tee and ability to score on the par-5s makes him a natural fit. Quail Hollow rewards aggressive drivers who can shape shots, and McIlroy`s high fade suits the layout perfectly. Yes, Rory just won the 2025 Masters, demonstrating his ability to close out a major under immense pressure while navigating the game`s ups and downs. His putting, which could be considered a weaker area, has been reliable, and if he carries that momentum into Charlotte, he`s a threat to outperform the field. On approach, he`s been dialed in, ranking fourth in the field in strokes gained over the last 32 rounds. Quail Hollow`s greens are challenging, but when McIlroy is in rhythm, his confident stroke on fast surfaces is an asset. He ranks second from tee-to-green, excels with his long irons – crucial on a track stretching over 7,500 yards. His elite ball striking and course familiarity make him a high-confidence play for both a Top-5 finish and the outright win. For the Masters, I suggested waiting until after Round 1 for better live odds. This time, I recommend taking the pre-tournament odds. His dominance here makes it worthwhile. If the outright number is too short for your liking, the Top 5 bet is a solid option.
Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (+105)
There are only two players I`d ever feel comfortable with for a Top 5 bet: Rory and Scottie. Scheffler is the definition of consistency. He`s accumulated top finishes in elite fields all season, with three Top-5s in his last four starts, including a win at the RBC Heritage where he dominated the course with a score of 31 under par. He currently has the best tee-to-green game on tour and leads in total strokes gained. That kind of steadiness travels well, even to a place like Quail Hollow where he is making his PGA Tour debut. It`s risky, but justified. His improved putting lately is a significant advantage. Even when he`s not at his absolute best, he remains in contention because his ball striking is so good. With his form trending up after a win and his ability to stay composed in major settings, getting Scottie at plus money for a Top 5 feels like a smart, calculated wager.
Jon Rahm Top 20 (-105)
Rahm in the Top 20 for the PGA Championship just makes sense. Quail Hollow is built for a player like him. He drives it long, is precise with long irons, and can grind through tough conditions. He ranks ninth in driving distance and eleventh in accuracy, so he can hit it far and keep it in play, exactly what this course demands. Unlike Augusta, where he surprisingly lost strokes on approach (only the second time this year), Quail Hollow rewards his tee-to-green reliability. Rahm`s long game is typically rock-solid, and this setup allows him to lean on that strength without being overly penalized for a rare off week with his irons. The -105 price feels like a steal for a player who has finished in the top 15 in five of the last 10 majors he has played.
Corey Conners Top 20 (+200)
Conners impresses me every week. His tee-to-green game is excellent, ranking sixth in the field, which is half the battle at Quail Hollow. His driving accuracy (17th) is a huge asset here, especially when the rough is thick and penal. Furthermore, his long iron play, particularly from 200 to 225 yards (eighth), gives him a real advantage on the longer par-4s. Sure, his putting can be inconsistent, but he doesn`t need a lights-out week on the greens to finish in the top 20. At +200, you`re getting value on a player who fits this course setup perfectly and is currently on a streak of Top 20 finishes, with six in his last seven starts. At +200, the implied probability seems too low for a player of his caliber on this course.
Full Tournament Head-to-Head
Rory McIlroy (-125) vs. Bryson DeChambeau
This matchup is about reliability. McIlroy`s game holds up consistently over four rounds at a challenging venue like this, while DeChambeau is more unpredictable, as seen at Augusta last month where he shot 10 under par through the first three days but finished 3 over on Day 4. When DeChambeau`s driver gets wild or his putter goes cold, his rounds can quickly go off track. McIlroy`s history at Quail Hollow and his balanced game give him the edge. Bryson might outdrive him, but Rory`s combination of distance and accuracy makes him more reliable over the long run.
Jon Rahm (-135) vs. Collin Morikawa
On a course stretching over 7,500 yards, Rahm`s ability to hit it long and still find the fairway is invaluable. Even when Rahm isn`t at his absolute best, he typically grinds out a respectable finish. Morikawa, on the other hand, can struggle significantly if his putter or short game isn`t working. That kind of volatility makes him a riskier bet in a head-to-head matchup. You are betting on a powerful player with accuracy and the ability to minimize mistakes, which is essential for four rounds at Quail Hollow.
How to Bet Bryson DeChambeau
You might like DeChambeau`s chances of winning this tournament, and I understand why. He plays with maximum power off the tee, which is perfectly suited for this course, and if he`s in control, he can overpower Quail Hollow.
However, for me, a Top 10 bet at +110 simply isn`t sufficient value. DeChambeau`s game can change instantly: when he`s locked in, he can dominate, but one poor shot can disrupt everything. I`d rather wait to see how he performs in Round 1 and then reassess. If he looks sharp, you might find a better live line for a Top 10 or even a Top 5 finish.
