Before the 2025-26 NHL season began, bold predictions were made for all 32 teams. With the first quarter of the campaign now complete, it is time to check the validity and probability of those initial claims.
We are issuing a progress report on our bold predictions, rating each outcome on a 1-10 scale. A rating of `1` signifies that the prediction is highly unlikely to materialize, while `10` confirms it was absolutely nailed.
Atlantic Division
Boston Bruins
Given Boston`s substantial roster changes last season, predicting Zacha`s trade during their `retool` phase seemed reasonable. Zacha, a versatile center who found significant offensive success in Boston, is signed affordably through next season ($4.75 million AAV). However, his trade status hinges on several factors: whether the Bruins view him as a long-term piece, their standing in the playoff race, and if another team makes an irresistible offer in this center-starved league.
Buffalo Sabres
Dahlin has played under immense personal stress this season, having missed games to care for his fiancée following her heart transplant. Despite this, he is performing well, ranking in the top 10 among defensemen scorers with 14 points (13 assists) in 17 games. The Sabres` ongoing struggle for contention should not necessarily impact his Norris candidacy, as he finished sixth in voting last season.
The primary concern remains the tight competition: for the foreseeable future, only one Norris finalist spot seems open to players not named Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes.
Detroit Red Wings
This prediction humorously suggested that the Red Wings general manager would step down during the very season Detroit contended for the Atlantic Division lead. I still harbor some doubts about the `Yzerplan,` especially following tough starts for top prospect Marco Kasper and goaltender John Gibson. However, Yzerman will likely retain his position if the Red Wings improve upon last season`s .524 points percentage.
Of course, this depends heavily on Detroit avoiding their typical late-season slump. If they miss the playoffs and perform worse than last year, the question of how many chances the franchise legend gets will resurface (he has been GM since 2019).
Florida Panthers
Regular-season Bobrovsky (9-5-0, .883 SV%, 2.80 GAA through 14 games) usually does just enough to secure a playoff berth. Then, he transforms into Playoff Bobrovsky, the perennial hero who guided the Panthers to three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals, winning the last two (postseason stats: .914 SV%, 2.20 GAA in 23 games last year).
The Panthers recently rewarded Sam Bennett, a player known for stepping up in the playoffs, with a big contract. They also re-signed a 37-year-old veteran to a six-year, $5.25 million AAV deal. It is highly probable they will offer Bobrovsky a similar long-term commitment, especially since, like Brad Marchand in Boston, he desires to stay.
Montreal Canadiens
Unfortunately, Kaiden Guhle only played five games before undergoing surgery for a partially torn abductor muscle, sidelining him for at least two months.
While this setback drastically limits his season, there is still enough time for him to return and make the impact necessary to earn the appreciation he deserves. Alternatively, the Canadiens` desperate need for him during his absence might serve the same purpose, highlighting his value through scarcity.
Ottawa Senators
The target for this prediction is Cozens` career bests of 31 goals and 68 points, set in 2022-23.
So far, Cozens has recorded seven goals and seven assists in 19 games. While his goal pace keeps him near the 30-goal mark, he is significantly short of tracking toward 68 points. A major hot streak is necessary during the remainder of the season to fulfill this prediction.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning started the season poorly (1-4-2) and were immediately hampered by injuries to key players like Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, and Anthony Cirelli. However, they have recently recovered, winning nine of their last 12 games. Struggling aspects of the team, such as the power play, appear to be rounding into shape. While Brayden Point has yet to regain his peak form, there is plenty of time left.
Analytics site Stathletes projects the Lightning with an 81.5% chance of finishing first in the Atlantic Division. We will gladly accept that endorsement.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Considering the constant turmoil surrounding the Maple Leafs early in the season, this prediction—that Nick Robertson, perpetually rumored to be traded, would remain with the team—seemed cautious. He is indeed still on the roster, having played 19 of 20 games and recording 11 points. Yet, given the unpredictable nature of the Toronto media market and management decisions, his long-term security remains uncertain.
Metropolitan Division
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina`s regular-season success under Coach Rod Brind’Amour is so expected that their 13-5-1 start has become background noise, even despite playing most games without star defenseman Jaccob Slavin. They have reached the conference finals in three of the last seven years, falling to the eventual champions (Florida Panthers) in two of the last three seasons.
Their historical playoff issue is goal scoring (3.12 goals per game in the last three postseasons, down from 3.27 in the regular season). However, their early offensive surge this year (3.63 goals per game over 19 games) suggests they may have the depth to finally break through the Eastern Conference ceiling. Crucially, the Hurricanes appear the most formidable team in the East right now, barring a major playoff push from a team like the Panthers with a healthy Aleksander Barkov.
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets surprisingly lead the league in team save percentage through 20 games. The rotation featuring Jet Greaves and Elvis Merzļikins has stabilized the position, but it is increasingly apparent that Greaves is outperforming his partner. He holds a .904 save percentage in 12 games and superior goals saved above expected.
If the starting job is not yet fully Greaves’s, it appears inevitable. The organization has been waiting for a goalie capable of consistently relegating Merzļikins to a backup role, and Greaves seems to have the capability to do so.
New Jersey Devils
Mea culpa: The prediction that Jack Hughes would play all 82 games is already busted. Unfortunately, Hughes suffered a freak accident—a finger injury requiring surgery during a team dinner in Chicago—sidelining him for at least six weeks. This incident effectively guarantees that the New Jersey franchise will continue its search for its first 50-goal or 100-point scorer, rendering this bold prediction null.
On the bright side, Hughes` earlier statements before the season about his offseason conditioning holding up despite perennial injuries were generally correct, proving that some events, like freak accidents involving glass, cannot be accounted for.
New York Islanders
This was initially a straightforward prediction: Roy reportedly lacks a contract beyond this season, and new GM Mathieu Darche (who did not hire Roy) would likely want his own coach. The Islanders were projected low and had only a one-in-four chance of making the playoffs.
Then, 18-year-old first overall pick Matthew Schaefer arrived, playing like a seasoned veteran and injecting the team with youthful enthusiasm. Suddenly, the Islanders are in a playoff spot and looking ascendant in the East.
While the factors listed above (contract status, new GM) still support the prediction, Schaefer’s immediate impact has made it much shakier.
New York Rangers
Through the first 21 games, the Rangers have shown flashes of playoff readiness, interspersed with stretches that make the postseason seem implausible. Stathletes currently gives them an 84.2% chance of making the Stanley Cup playoffs, offering hope. Goalie Igor Shesterkin and defenseman Adam Fox are having strong seasons, and the offense should improve as players like Will Cuylle and Vincent Trocheck emerge from the early-season doldrums.
However, concerns persist regarding their depth and captain J.T. Miller, whose offensive numbers have dropped off while observers note listless defensive play. Despite worries about team chemistry and strong competition, there is faith that Mike Sullivan and the Rangers brass (led by an aggressive GM Chris Drury) will find a solution.
Philadelphia Flyers
This prediction was initially a joke aimed at Penguins fans, suggesting that the top phenomenon in next year`s draft (who plays in Penn State) would end up in Philadelphia instead of Pittsburgh. However, the Penguins are not playing like a lottery team, and the Flyers are stubbornly clinging to relevance in the Metro Division thanks to exceptional goaltending from offseason acquisition Dan Vladar.
The analytics community remains pessimistic about the Flyers` long-term standing. Stathletes projects them as a lottery team (89.2 points), while other projections put them far lower (81.6 points), only ahead of four other teams.
If the Flyers win the lottery, the irony would be profound, as the projected top pick (McKenna) is a winger, and Philadelphia`s greatest need is at center.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The genius of this prediction was its calculated vagueness. Initially fueled by speculation that Crosby might leave Pittsburgh if the team failed again, I hedged by predicting he would play in the playoffs `somewhere.` Crosby himself refuted the rumors, expressing optimism that the Penguins could return to the playoffs.
What I did not account for was Crosby single-handedly willing the Penguins into contention. Through 19 games, Pittsburgh has a .632 points percentage, led by Crosby’s 23 points. Evgeni Malkin, also rumored to be tradable, leads the team with 12 goals. Due to their efforts, excellent coaching by Dan Muse, and the league’s second-best goaltending so far, the Penguins are relevant and appear poised for the playoffs. And Pittsburgh is, indeed, `somewhere.`
Washington Capitals
After surpassing Wayne Gretzky`s regular-season goal record last season, Ovechkin targets Gretzky`s combined goal record (regular season plus playoffs: 1,016). Ovechkin needed 43 goals combined to break this mark.
Through 19 games, Ovechkin has scored only six goals, a pace that would leave him well under 30 for the season. Even with a prolonged playoff run, it is hard to see him breaking the combined record without a significant increase in regular-season production. The good news is that when Ovechkin gets hot, his scoring pace can be blistering.
Central Division
Chicago Blackhawks
While Connor Bedard is having a star-making season (13 goals in 19 games), Frank Nazar is quietly having a great campaign himself. He has 13 points in 17 games and is contributing across all phases of play. He briefly missed time due to injury but has returned to scoring.
Nazar tallied 26 points in 53 games last season. At his current rate, and assuming he remains healthy, he is tracking to top 60 points—more than double his previous total. Although he is not on Bedard’s main line, playing alongside him on the power play is enough to boost his production.
Colorado Avalanche
It feels good to align with a powerhouse. The Avalanche started the season 13-1-5 in their first 19 games, leading the NHL in both offense and defense. They boast the league`s leading scorer (Nathan MacKinnon), the top-scoring defenseman (Cale Makar), and the fourth-best team save percentage (.909) thanks to 33-year-old journeyman Scott Wedgewood`s career-best play.
The scary part is how much improvement remains possible from players like Brock Nelson, Gabe Landeskog, and Valeri Nichushkin.
Although the Avalanche have failed to pass the second round since winning the Cup in 2022, MacKinnon & Co. appear absolutely determined to reclaim the championship chalice next June.
Dallas Stars
Grading this prediction is awkward since Duchene is currently on long-term injured reserve with an undisclosed ailment, having played only four games (1 goal, 1 assist) since October 18.
However, the original premise stands: the departure of productive wingers (Mikael Granlund and Mason Marchment) combined with a highly unlikely repetition of his previous 19.7% shooting percentage suggests Duchene will not maintain a point-per-game pace once he returns to the ice.
Minnesota Wild
Through 20 games, Zeev Buium has 10 points to Brock Faber`s nine points. If we stopped the clock now, this prediction would be a win!
This prediction relied heavily on Buium securing top power-play time, compensating for anticipated low 5-on-5 rookie production. True to form, seven of his 10 points have come via the man advantage, where he averages much more ice time than Faber (3:22 to 1:04). However, his role as the quarterback for Kirill Kaprizov’s unit is not yet solidified.
Buium`s production has stalled in his last 10 games, and his overall ice time is fluctuating. I remain confident, but cautious.
Nashville Predators
GM Barry Trotz recently stated the Predators are in a `transitional phase.` Regardless, things are struggling under Brunette for the second consecutive season, which typically necessitates a coaching change.
However, what would firing Brunette accomplish? He signed a four-year deal in 2024. Unless Trotz wishes to add `coach` to his job title, it makes financial and organizational sense to let Brunette coach through a likely `lost season` instead of paying him to do nothing. A poor season also benefits a transitional phase.
The only ways Brunette doesn`t finish the season are if Trotz feels compelled to step behind the bench himself, or if he wants to give AHL Milwaukee Admirals coach Karl Taylor a trial run.
St. Louis Blues
Snuggerud has been unremarkable through the first 20 games (5 goals, 6 assists, minus-2) despite showing promise in last season`s playoffs. He has been given opportunities on the top lines with Pavel Buchnevich and Robert Thomas, as well as power-play time.
Snuggerud faces two major hurdles: First, the struggling Blues organization means his achievements receive less attention than rookies on contending teams. Second, Matthew Schaefer (Islanders) and Ivan Demidov (Canadiens) have dominated the early rookie spotlight.
With four intriguing rookie goalies also in the mix, the field is crowded. Snuggerud still has a path to the Calder nomination if he can accelerate his scoring pace and lead all rookie forwards in points.
Utah Mammoth
After losing their third consecutive overtime game this week, Coach André Tourigny joked, “We’re undefeated in regulation in the last four [games]. Let’s put it that way.”
The Mammoth are currently stabilizing and collecting points following a difficult stretch of five regulation losses, which itself followed seven straight wins. This volatility is typical of young, highly talented teams, and Utah is no exception.
Utah has demonstrated enough quality to inspire confidence in a playoff appearance. Their core players are exceptional, and young stars like Logan Cooley are constantly improving. The only major concern lies in net, where Karel Vejmelka and Vitek Vanecek are playing below replacement levels. Nevertheless, I`m not giving up on the Mammoth yet.
Winnipeg Jets
This prediction proved spectacularly accurate. After the preseason story ran on September 24, Connor signed an eight-year contract extension on October 8 worth $96 million, giving him a $12 million average annual value (AAV) through 2033-34.
Mitch Marner had previously signed an eight-year, $96 million extension ($12 million AAV through 2032-33).
This was an absolute bullseye prediction. If a rating higher than 10 were possible, it would be awarded here.
Pacific Division
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks have been an early-season revelation. New head coach Joel Quenneville has unlocked their offense, resulting in 3.63 goals per game (third in the league). Young stars like Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier ranked among the NHL`s top scorers early on. Anaheim sat atop the Pacific Division, suggesting they have turned a corner.
Stathletes gives Anaheim a 67% chance of making the playoffs, confirming their strong start is legitimate. However, reaching the playoffs is different from contending for the Cup. It is anticipated that the Oilers will surge, the Kings will stabilize, and the Golden Knights will hit their stride. The Wild Card spots will be fiercely contested by teams like Utah, Minnesota, and Seattle.
The reason for sticking with a near-miss prediction: Anaheim does not yet defend at a playoff level. Lukas Dostal is good enough to get them to the edge of the bubble, but the team’s defensive deficiencies will likely see that bubble pop just days before the postseason begins.
Calgary Flames
The Flames currently hold the worst record in the NHL through 21 games (.310 points percentage), effectively losing their season early and sitting 10 points out of the final wild-card spot as of November 19.
Naturally, the trade market is buzzing with Flames talent. Defenseman Rasmus Andersson and versatile forward Blake Coleman are subjects of speculation. But Kadri continues to intrigue teams needing a skilled No. 2 center, especially given his unique mix of skill and grit, despite having limited trade protection.
Reports suggest the Flames are not currently shopping Kadri, who is signed through 2028-29 at a reasonable cap hit ($7 million AAV), largely due to the wishes of Flames ownership. However, if the team continues to struggle, trading Kadri might become a move that simply makes more organizational sense than keeping him, especially if a contender views him as a championship piece.
Edmonton Oilers
Connor McDavid resolved his contract status on October 6. Was it team-friendly? Yes. McDavid signed for far less than market value, agreeing to an $12.5 million AAV deal, which is $1.5 million less annually than his teammate Leon Draisaitl.
Was it a three-year deal? No. McDavid surprised many by taking an even shorter short-term extension.
