Every event in sports carries additional significance when viewed through the lens of betting. From critical injuries to historic moments and beyond, the news cycle constantly and substantially influences the sports betting landscape.
Our betting buzz report highlights the sports betting narratives currently driving discussion and interest.
May 6: Stars and Jets Advance After Defying Extreme Live Odds
Remarkably, before last weekend, NHL teams trailing by multiple goals in the third period of a Stanley Cup Playoffs Game 7 had won only three times in history. Yet, as the first round concluded, both the Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets accomplished this rare feat, overcoming incredibly long in-game odds to move on to the second round.
At their most challenging points, Dallas faced live odds as long as +2000 to defeat the Colorado Avalanche, while Winnipeg hit +2500 on the live line in the final minutes of regulation against the St. Louis Blues.
Entering the playoffs, Colorado was slightly favored to win the Stanley Cup at +700 odds, just ahead of the defending champion Florida Panthers. The Avalanche garnered significant support across the sports betting market, attracting high percentages of handle and tickets for championship futures at major sportsbooks. St. Louis was a much longer shot at 5-1 but posed a notable liability for some bookmakers.
The reward for the Stars and Jets navigating their challenging first-round series is a matchup against each other in the second round. For Dallas, this caps off a tumultuous period; after acquiring a key player at the trade deadline, they became co-favorites for the Cup at +600 but saw their odds drop to +1100 after a seven-game losing streak to end the regular season. Now, the Stars are once again the favored team to win the Cup at +400.
Winnipeg, conversely, holds some of the longest odds remaining to win it all (+900), an ironic twist given that both the Jets and their second-round opponent, the Washington Capitals (tied odds), finished the regular season atop their respective conferences.
Bettors appear to favor Dallas heavily in the series, with the vast majority of wagers and money supporting the Stars (-175). Since the weekend, Dallas has attracted more action for winning the Stanley Cup than any other remaining team at multiple sportsbooks.
Odds & Ends (NHL)
- Heading into the second round, no team with home ice advantage was favored to win its series, the first time this has occurred in this round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in over 30 years. After winning their first game against Florida, the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have home ice, moved to -125 favorites in their series.
- Colorado`s Nathan MacKinnon was the most-backed player for the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP at one major sportsbook, representing the largest liability for the book.
- Although a Canadian team has not won the Stanley Cup in 32 years, Canadian teams remain popular bets: The Edmonton Oilers attracted a leading percentage of bets and handle at one sportsbook, while the Maple Leafs saw significant ticket and money support at another.
May 5: Warriors` Record Playoff Favorite Streak Nears End
The Golden State Warriors have been favored in every one of their 27 playoff series under head coach Steve Kerr. This marks the longest such streak by any team since the 1976 ABA/NBA merger and is now poised to conclude.
The Warriors are currently +150 underdogs to win their Western Conference semifinal series against the Minnesota Timberwolves. This is Golden State`s first time not being favored in a series since the first round of the 2014 playoffs against the LA Clippers.
Minnesota opened as -190 favorites for the series, with the price slightly adjusting later. The Timberwolves were also favored by several points in Game 1. Minnesota aims to become the first team to eliminate both LeBron James and Stephen Curry in the same postseason.
Golden State won three out of four regular-season meetings against Minnesota this season, although a key midseason acquisition for the Warriors did not participate in any of those games.
NBA Playoffs Odds & Ends
- Despite losing Game 1, the Cleveland Cavaliers remained favored in their semifinal series against the Indiana Pacers at -210 odds.
- The Oklahoma City Thunder (-900) enter their semifinal series against the Denver Nuggets (+500) with eight days of rest, while the Nuggets had only two days off after winning their first-round series. Since 2004, teams with a rest advantage of seven or more days over their opponent have a perfect record straight-up and against the spread in Game 1, winning by a large average margin. The Thunder were significant favorites in Game 1.
April 30: Betting Interest Surges on Browns After NFL Draft
Following a draft that drew mixed reactions, the Cleveland Browns face long odds, standing at 10-1 underdogs to reach the playoffs—the highest odds on the board at one sportsbook. Their season win total is set at a low 4.5. Despite this, some bettors are showing confidence in the team.
Sportsbooks noted a rise in interest for the Browns in the days following the draft. Cleveland was among the most popular wagers for season win totals at one sportsbook, with a high percentage of the money bet on the over 4.5 wins. At another sportsbook, only a few teams had attracted more bets to win the Super Bowl than the Browns, listed at 200-1. Cleveland has also drawn more bets to win the AFC North than any of their division rivals at that same sportsbook.
At 10-1, the Browns are the biggest preseason playoff long shots in the league for the first time since 2016. The team`s quarterback situation remains uncertain, with several players expected to compete for the starting role, including a 40-year-old veteran, a player on his third team in four years, and rookie prospects.
One rookie quarterback prospect has 15-1 odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, tying for the fifth-shortest odds available in the market. He was attracting support even at longer odds previously and is considered a notable liability for some sportsbooks due to name recognition and the betting volume he`s drawing.
April 29: Pennsylvania Joins Online Poker Liquidity Compact
The landscape of American online poker liquidity expanded this week as Pennsylvania joined the Multi-State Internet Gaming Agreement alongside New Jersey, Michigan, Nevada, and Delaware. This allows players to compete with participants from other participating jurisdictions for shared online prize pools.
A major entertainment company announced it was expanding its World Series of Poker platform into Pennsylvania, becoming the first U.S. operator enabling players from four states to compete for these shared prize pools. Their online poker platform also operates in Nevada, New Jersey, and Michigan.
This expansion occurs just a month before poker`s most prominent period, culminating in the World Series of Poker Main Event in Las Vegas in July. A major online tournament series is scheduled to start soon, coinciding with the live Las Vegas event and featuring significant guaranteed prize pools. Players can participate in online tournaments concurrently with in-person events in Las Vegas. The state`s governor signed the compact agreement allowing this participation.
A company executive commented on the timing, stating that adding the Pennsylvania player pool to their online platform was perfectly timed. They expressed readiness to offer players in the state the chance to increase the stakes of their play, noting that this expansion enhances the player experience by creating even larger prize pools available throughout the summer online schedule. They anticipate seeing who will win the largest online prize pools ever offered as the tournaments begin.
April 24: Betting Heavily on No. 1 Picks – Risking a Lot for a Little
Last April, on a Thursday night during a league championship event, a college student named Zach Opengart was preoccupied with something other than his current competition. Less than 48 hours prior, he had traveled to a neighboring state to place a bet he considered audacious: over $11,000 on quarterback Caleb Williams to be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft at extreme odds of -20,000.
Opengart, then a senior, nervously checked his phone for the latest draft news, occasionally looking up to watch the NFL commissioner on TV. It was a significant wager, a large portion of his funds, perhaps too large in retrospect, he notes. Yet, he felt confident, convinced the Chicago Bears would select Williams first overall. When the commissioner finally announced Caleb Williams as the No. 1 pick, Opengart had won a modest return of just over $50 on his substantial bet. Despite his distraction, his team went on to win their championship, and he celebrated by buying drinks.
Betting markets for events like the NFL draft are dynamic and often present extreme odds. They are challenging for bookmakers to manage and force bettors to weigh the value of risking a large amount to gain a small return. For instance, quarterback Cam Ward`s odds to be a high draft pick could be found as short as -50,000 this week at some sportsbooks, meaning a bet of $50,000 would yield only $100 profit. One sportsbook reported not taking any “notable” wagers on Ward at -50,000 odds recently but confirmed such bets have occurred in previous drafts.
A trading manager explained that “information events” like the NFL draft are tricky for setting odds. When there`s a strong indication that a team intends to make a specific pick, bookmakers offer odds reflecting a very high probability, such as 99.99% certainty.
Opengart, now working in marketing, says this level of certainty is what attracts him to betting on heavy favorites, like his wager on Williams. He explained his reasoning was based on the apparent certainty compared to previous drafts, citing confidence from reporting and team indications that made it seem like a sure thing.
While he says he doesn`t want to risk such a large portion of his funds again, he continues to bet on strong favorites, though not always successfully. Opengart mentioned losing several thousand dollars on a similar low-return bet when a heavily favored college football team lost outright as large moneyline favorites.
“It was brutal,” Opengart said, reflecting on losses, “but I always say with betting, especially my style, that you have to have the memory of a goldfish. The only thing that matters is the long-term return.”
He added, “I`m the type of person, if you`ll give me a free 50 bucks … I`ll take it every time, get myself a steak dinner and be happy about it.” Opengart anticipates his next “steak dinner bet” might be on Cooper Flagg to be the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA draft.
