As April begins, the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in familiar territory: for the ninth consecutive year, they are heading to the Stanley Cup playoffs. The team and its fans are hoping that this year will break the pattern of past playoff disappointments and mark a turning point for the franchise.
If the Maple Leafs secure the Atlantic Division title, they are likely to face the Ottawa Senators in the first round. While the Senators are a competent team, they are not considered as strong as rivals like the Tampa Bay Lightning or Florida Panthers, positioning the Leafs as favorites in the matchup. Anything less than a series victory would be seen as a significant failure, potentially leading to major changes in the offseason.
Failing to advance beyond the early playoff rounds would mean that the core group of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly would have played under three different head coaches and systems without achieving substantial playoff success.
The critical question is whether Coach Craig Berube`s strategic approach will effectively guide the team to score in the high-traffic areas crucial for playoff goals, or if the offensive struggles and playoff frustrations will persist.
Offensive and Goaltending Adjustments
Under former coach Sheldon Keefe, the Maple Leafs excelled in the regular season. Keefe recognized the reasons behind their playoff shortcomings but struggled to get the team`s key players to adapt their style. Since taking over, Berube has implemented noticeable changes in the Leafs` gameplay. Observers note a greater emphasis on forechecking, sustained puck possession in the offensive zone, and attacking the net-front, contrasting with the previous focus on fast breaks and skill-based plays.
Historically, the Leafs` playoff scoring difficulties stemmed from an offensive style not suited for the tighter, more physical playoff environment. The highlight-reel plays and intricate passes seen in the regular season are less frequent in the playoffs. Success in the playoffs demands a focus on inside positioning, creating net-front presence, and scoring those so-called `greasy` goals.
The tactical shift from Keefe to Berube is evident. The Maple Leafs no longer dominate puck possession as they once did, and their games tend to be lower-scoring. In Keefe`s last full season (2023-24), Leafs games averaged 6.81 total goals, compared to 6.19 under Berube. Last season, Toronto was ranked second in the league for goals per game (3.63) and scoring chances per game (18.09). Currently, they rank ninth in goals per game (3.26) and 22nd in scoring chances (14.55), according to Stathletes data.
Berube`s system emphasizes a more direct offensive approach, prioritizing forechecking, puck pursuit, and puck recovery. This resembles a dump-and-chase strategy, a significant departure from Keefe`s possession-based style. Under Keefe, Toronto consistently ranked among the top teams in possession time, while under Berube, they are 20th. A key change is the reduction in rush chances, dropping from second in the NHL last season (17.5 per game) to 15th this season (14.5).
Interestingly, Toronto remains one of the top teams in breakaways, with Nylander leading the league with 18 rush goals. Last season, only 7.7% of the Leafs` goals came directly from rebounds, ranking last in the NHL. Under Berube, this has increased to 10%, according to Stathletes.
Defensively, the changes have been more impactful. In Keefe`s final season, the Leafs allowed 3.18 goals per game with a team save percentage of .893. They averaged 32.5 shots for and 29.8 against per game. Under Berube, these numbers have shifted to 28.2 shots for and 29.3 against. Crucially, the Leafs are now conceding 7% fewer scoring chances per game due to a stronger defensive commitment. Berube aims to minimize high-speed, back-and-forth play, reducing odd-man rushes. Last season, Toronto had a +2.11 differential in scoring chances per game, which has changed to -0.34 this season.
These adjustments have resulted in closer games and more favorable conditions for the team`s goaltenders. Anthony Stolarz, for example, is ranked fourth in goals saved above expected (13.26), according to Stathletes. Toronto`s improved record in one-goal games reflects their increased comfort and effectiveness in tight defensive situations, a critical attribute for playoff success.
A Reconstructed Defense
Berube`s coaching style is most effective with defensemen who prioritize physicality and defensive play. Maple Leafs General Manager Brad Treliving`s reshaping of the defensive lineup aligns well with Berube`s preferences. Inheriting Jake McCabe, Treliving added Chris Tanev, Brandon Carlo, Simon Benoit, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson to a defense corps anchored by Morgan Rielly.
Berube`s St. Louis Blues teams featured defensemen like Colton Parayko, Jay Bouwmeester, Joel Edmundson, Robert Bortuzzo, and Carl Gunnarsson. The parallels between these players and the current Leafs` defensemen are clear: they are large, physically imposing, and adept at shot blocking, with a strong defensive focus. While this approach may limit offensive contributions from the blue line, it enhances defensive stability.
Playoff hockey is known for its increased physicality and tolerance for minor infractions. Historically, the Leafs have struggled both to draw penalties and to impose their own physical presence. The newly acquired defensemen have a proven history of increasing physicality in playoff scenarios, adding a tougher dimension to the team. Treliving and Berube`s strategy is evident in the roster construction and playing style, with one potential exception.
A notable similarity between Berube`s systems in St. Louis and Toronto is the somewhat reduced offensive output from offensive-minded defensemen like Rielly and, previously in St. Louis, Vince Dunn. Dunn only truly thrived offensively after joining the Seattle Kraken. Rielly`s decreased offensive production has been a significant talking point, as he appears to be the defenseman most affected by Berube`s system. Rielly excels in offensive systems that encourage activation and rush-based offense, similar to Dunn`s role in Seattle and Rielly`s own performance under Keefe.
Under Berube in St. Louis, Dunn averaged less than 18 minutes of ice time per game. In Seattle, he averages over 22 minutes and has nearly doubled his offensive output, increasing from 102 points in 267 games with the Blues to 180 points in 268 games with the Kraken. Rielly`s production has similarly decreased, from 202 points in 274 games under Keefe (0.74 points per game) to 35 points in 74 games under Berube (0.47). While Rielly`s performance is still valuable, it suggests Berube`s system may limit the offensive contributions of defensemen.
Playoff Success: Will the System Translate?
One immeasurable factor remains: the perceived `curse`. There`s no statistical or logical explanation for the playoff struggles that have plagued the Leafs, reminiscent of the long droughts experienced by the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs. The Leafs seem to carry a burden of past playoff failures.
Many question whether this core group possesses the necessary qualities to achieve deep playoff runs. Berube`s system appears better suited for playoff hockey, yet the Leafs` recent playoff issues have been more about scoring droughts than defensive frailties.
Playoff hockey offers limited opportunities for open, high-speed play due to tighter checking and officiating. Berube`s stylistic changes aim to prepare Toronto for this playoff intensity. A strong defensive foundation combined with a tenacious forechecking offense designed to wear down opponents is more effective in the playoffs. This style creates discomfort for opposing teams, forcing players to handle the puck differently when anticipating constant pressure and physical engagement along the boards.
For the Maple Leafs to succeed in the playoffs, three key elements are essential:
- Effective goaltending is crucial.
- Continued strong defensive play is necessary.
- The top offensive players must generate more scoring opportunities in high-danger areas.
Throughout the season, the Leafs have developed habits of aggressive forechecking, puck pursuit, and defensive commitment. Success now depends on executing these principles: battling for loose pucks, making the extra effort to clear the puck in difficult situations, winning net-front battles for those crucial goals, and consistently applying forechecking pressure. Playoff games will be tight-checking, with few breakaways or odd-man rushes.
These habits have been instilled in the team since Berube`s arrival. Now, it`s up to the players to demonstrate they can perform when it matters most in the playoffs.
