It`s true, many of my preseason NHL predictions for 2024-25 were off the mark. There were misjudgments, flawed reasoning, and the bold claim that the Buffalo Sabres would reach the playoffs – a prediction so inaccurate it might warrant a cognitive assessment.

However, I did get one thing right: both of my Stanley Cup Final picks are indeed in the 2025 NHL postseason. But after a full 82-game season of data, outcomes, and analysis, I`m reconsidering one of those selections while sticking with the other – possibly to my own detriment, given their current situation.

Here’s my prediction for how the Stanley Cup playoffs will unfold, from the first round to the final game. I apologize in advance for any spoilers for the next two months, as this is all guaranteed to happen exactly as predicted, and none of these picks will be wrong.

Let`s all enjoy the excitement of the postseason together, regardless of how it plays out.

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Eastern Conference First Round

A1 Toronto Maple Leafs

vs.

WC1 Ottawa Senators

I recall speaking with Brady Tkachuk before the 4 Nations Face-Off about the potential of Ottawa facing Toronto in the playoffs for the first time since 2004, when the Maple Leafs triumphed in the Battle of Ontario, the fourth playoff series between these teams.

`I think it would be fun and amazing,` he said to me. `It doesn`t really matter who you play; it`s about getting there and the journey to get there.`

I sensed Brady was holding back slightly, focusing on securing a playoff spot for the Senators. However, his excitement was palpable, particularly when discussing how much Ottawa fans would savor the opportunity to finally get one over on their Original Six rivals.

Anyone who watched the 4 Nations Face-Off knows Brady Tkachuk will rise to the occasion, physically or with his skill. This will be his first Stanley Cup playoff experience as more than a spectator of his brother`s games, and his determination will be a factor in this series. However, he can`t do it alone, and the Senators` overall offensive capabilities aren`t quite enough to truly worry the Leafs. Ottawa ranked 22nd in expected goals per 60 minutes since the 4 Nations break.

To defeat Toronto, a team needs to instill fear and doubt in them. This has been easy for teams like Boston, who seem to get in their heads just by stepping on the ice. But the Maple Leafs inherently know the Senators aren`t at their level. They lack goal scorers like William Nylander (45) or Auston Matthews (33), or point producers comparable to Mitch Marner (102 points) or John Tavares (74 in 75 games). Toronto should be reasonably confident that their defense, strengthened by the deadline addition of Boston`s Brandon Carlo, can handle Ottawa`s attack, provided goalies Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll perform adequately.

No, the only one who can trigger playoff anxieties for the Leafs is Linus Ullmark.

Ullmark`s playoff record isn`t exactly stellar: 3-6 with an .887 save percentage, all with the Bruins. But Leafs fans are well aware of opposing goalies derailing their playoff hopes, most recently Sergei Bobrovsky of Florida in 2023, playing at Vezina-caliber level. The chance Ullmark becomes that guy is slim based on his playoff history… but it`s the Leafs in the playoffs. Any imaginable disappointment is possible.

Though, not necessarily in this round.

Prediction: Maple Leafs defeat Senators in five games.

A2 Tampa Bay Lightning

vs.

A3 Florida Panthers

I ranked Stanley Cup playoff watchability for our postseason preview of `The Drop.` The Dallas vs. Colorado series topped the list, due to compelling storylines like Mikko Rantanen`s revenge and Gabriel Landeskog`s long-awaited return from injury. But the Battle of Florida was a close second. It`s the most captivating Eastern Conference series, a clash of rivals and a potential springboard for a Stanley Cup finalist.

We haven`t yet seen this Panthers team at full strength, meaning we haven`t witnessed the chaos a line of Brad Marchand, Sam Bennett, and Matthew Tkachuk can unleash. (Bolts players, consider earplugs.) Florida has been without Aaron Ekblad due to a 20-game suspension for violating the NHL/NHLPA performance-enhancing substances policy. He could return as early as Game 3 against Tampa Bay.

The Panthers have shown by reaching the Stanley Cup Final twice in a row that their core is built for the postseason. Their key players possess the qualities teams seek at the trade deadline: clutch performance, defensive responsibility, toughness, and consistently rising to the occasion. They beat the Lightning in five games last season. However, I believe the Panthers` supporting cast has become slightly weaker, particularly on defense, while the Lightning have strengthened theirs over the past year.

Was there a more understated yet significant offseason move than the Lightning re-acquiring Ryan McDonagh? His veteran presence at 5-on-5 helped transform what coach Jon Cooper called a `mediocre` defensive team into the fourth-best in the NHL this season. Bringing back center Yanni Gourde – a key player from the Bolts` Stanley Cup-winning teams, acquired from Seattle – was also a smart move.

Besides those two, two other factors differentiate this Battle of Florida from the last one. First, Jake Guentzel, who scored 41 goals playing with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. He has an impressive 67 points in his last 69 playoff games. Second, Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is playing like a Vezina Trophy contender again. He was below average in the last two postseasons but seems ready to reclaim his position as the best playoff goalie since Martin Brodeur.

`Battle` might be an understatement for this series. Two potential Stanley Cup champions. Two intense rivals, packed with talent. A Panthers victory wouldn`t be surprising. But I`m going with the Bolts here. As Cooper recently said, many believe their time as a championship contender has passed. This series marks the beginning of their second act.

Prediction: Lightning defeat Panthers in seven games.

M1 Washington Capitals

vs.

WC2 Montreal Canadiens

I covered the 2010 Canadiens` upset of the Capitals, a legacy often mentioned since this matchup was set. There are intriguing parallels: the Capitals at the top of the conference, the Canadiens as the lowest seed. Montreal even added an exciting rookie late in both seasons: P.K. Subban then, Ivan Demidov now.

Neither Canadiens team was given much chance against the formidable Capitals. Both entered the postseason with a negative goal differential and low expectations. The latter point should worry the Capitals: a team with boundless enthusiasm and no pressure, too young to feel playoff anxiety, can be a recipe for an upset.

But these Capitals are different from the 2010 team. Those Caps were emotionally fragile, playing in an arena where tension was palpable during any postseason setback. Doubts about their roster and style of play led to a franchise crisis when Montreal upset them in Game 7. It took years for Washington to regain their swagger.

These Capitals take their lead from coach Spencer Carbery, a smart and stabilizing presence, and Alex Ovechkin, who can still energize his team with a single shot from his spot.

There`s considerable skepticism about the Capitals despite their record, from the lack of star power beyond Ovechkin to questions about their actual quality. But assuming they maintain solid goaltending – and hopefully Logan Thompson is healthy enough to contribute – Washington is fundamentally a better team than Montreal and will win this series. However, congratulations to the Canadiens for gaining valuable experience and avoiding a complete collapse like other Eastern Conference wild-card contenders.

Prediction: Capitals defeat Canadiens in five games.

M2 Carolina Hurricanes

vs.

M3 New Jersey Devils

The Hurricanes are vulnerable in this matchup.

Their 5-on-5 goaltending since the 4 Nations Face-Off ranks 23rd in the NHL, and their expected goals against per 60 minutes are 14th. However, they still exhibit hallmarks of Rod Brind`Amour`s Carolina teams: puck possession, a physical game, and a league-leading penalty kill.

This team also creates scoring chances at a high rate, leading the league in expected goals since 4 Nations. However, they are only ninth in actual 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes in that period, highlighting their difficulty in finishing chances. This is why Carolina traded for Jake Guentzel last season and had Mikko Rantanen briefly this season before trading him to Dallas.

Brind`Amour`s teams consistently seek that crucial goal in a critical moment to swing a series, but often don`t get it. This is why Carolina`s ceiling has been the conference finals under him. Management has tried to address this twice in two seasons. But the Hurricanes enter this postseason without that experienced goal-scoring solution.

Carolina`s vulnerability doesn`t guarantee the Devils will capitalize. It shouldn`t be too much to expect a playoff team to win four games in a seven-game series, but New Jersey hasn`t consistently done that since December. Even before Jack Hughes` season-ending injury, the Devils never had a winning streak longer than three games. After Hughes` injury on March 2, they had two three-game winning streaks and three three-game losing streaks. Inconsistency has been their defining trait.

Could they pull off an upset? Possibly. Dougie Hamilton is healthy. Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, and Jesper Bratt have stepped up in Hughes` absence, maintaining a potent power play. If Jacob Markstrom is above average and plays well for four games, they could win. Unfortunately, he often alternates good games with poor ones.

This matchup is closer than many believe, but ultimately, the Devils will likely wonder what they could have achieved with a healthy Jack Hughes.

Prediction: Hurricanes defeat Devils in six games.